2008 Arizona Diamondbacks Outlook
2007: (90-72), 1st place
Manager: Bob Melvin (4th season)
Key Additions -
P - Dan Haren
P - Chad Qualls
OF - Chris Burke
OF/1B - Trot Nixon
Key Losses -
P - Jose Valverde (to HOU)
P - Livan Hernandez (to MIN)
OF - Carlos Quentin (to CHIW)
P - Dana Eveland (to OAK)
3B - Jeff Cirillo (released)
1B - Tony Clark (to SD)
Projected Starting Lineup -
C - Chris Snyder
1B - Connor Jackson
2B - Orlando Hudson
SS - Stephen Drew
3B - Mark Reynolds
LF - Eric Byrnes
CF - Chris Young
RF - Justin Upton
Projected Rotation -
1 - Brandon Webb (R)
2 - Dan Haren (R)
3 - Doug Davis (L)
4 - Micah Owings (R)
5 - Randy Johnson (L)
CL: Brandon Lyon (R)
SU: Chad Qualls (R), Tony Pena (R)
2008 Outlook:
After claiming the NL West title last season in the tightest division race in baseball, the Arizona Diamondbacks made some key moves in the off-season to try to assure themselves a position in the playoffs once again. In December, the D-Backs announced, on the same day, they had brought in Dan Haren and shipped out Jose Valverde.
The addition of Haren gives Arizona a dynamic front of the rotation with two true #1s in Haren and Brandon Webb. Then if Randy Johnson is healthy at the end of the season, the D-Backs have a fearsome trio that no one will be anxious to face in the playoffs. However, the Diamondbacks did give up 6 (yes, that’s six) prospects for Haren. Two of those: Dana Eveland and Brett Anderson could see time in the Oakland rotation this season, so if the D-Backs don’t make a postseason run to top last year’s jaunt into the NLCS, this trade could turn out to be a fleecing by the Athletics.
Arizona also has its own pair of young pitchers, who could contribute significantly this season. One, Micah Owings, will be looking to build on what he accomplished last season, while the other, Max Scherzer will try to prove his lofty draft status (11th overall pick in 2006). Owings is a rare dual threat talent from the pitcher’s position. Last season, he won the Silver Slugger award given to the best hitter at each position (.333, 4 HR, 15 RBI in 60 AB).
Included in his hitting spree was a gargantuan homecoming against the Atlanta Braves (Owings is from Gainesville, GA). In the August game, his statline read 4 for 5, 4 R, 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI to go along with his solid 7 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 7 K pitching totals. Owings will look to build on his 8-8 record that saw him have streaks of struggles including 10 winless starts in a row leading up to the Atlanta contest.
Along with Schezer, Edgar Gonzalez will be a stop-gap to fill in for Johnson when he is inevitably hurt…like to begin the season. Both young pitchers could potentially be in the rotation at some point this season if Johnson is hurt and Owings or lefty Doug Davis struggles. Davis is coming off a career-high 13 wins, but he appears to be nothing more than a .500 pitcher (75-75 career record) as he routinely has runners on base evidenced by his atrocious WHIP (1.59 last season; 1.49 career).
How the bullpen shapes up is also a concern entering the season after Arizona traded the major league saves leader, Valverde, for Chad Qualls and Chris Burke. It is a strange trade that probably had more to do with money than player’s ability. While Qualls is a decent in the set-up role, Burke is going to be nothing more than a utility player off the bench with the Diamondbacks outfield chalked full of young talent, so much they got rid of former first round pick Carlos Quentin. So who assumes Valverde’s former role? Enter Brandon Lyon. Lyon, as well as key set-up guys Qualls and Tony Pena, has closed before, so this won’t be his first 9th inning rodeo. However, Lyon, Pena, and Qualls, who may each receive some closing time, are still a downgrade from the hyper-energetic Valverde and his strange facial expressions.
Much of this team’s success will depend on the maturation process of the young hitters on this team. As mentioned above, the outfield is very, very talented. Chris Young hit 32 homers and stole 27 bases but only hit .237 from the leadoff spot. Still he became the first rookie with 30 HR and 25 SB. Justin Upton, who is still not even old enough to drink, showed a little of what he is capable of doing in the playoffs after a late season call up. Eric Byrnes is the old man of the group, but he has only gotten better with age. Last season, he became only the 11th player to hit 20 HR and steal 50 bases in the same season.
Byrnes (32) and Orlando Hudson (30) are the ‘veteran’ leaders of the offense as no other starter will be over the age of 27. The longer the development of Stephen Drew (25), Connor Jackson (25), Mark Reynolds (24), Young (24), and the baby - Upton (20) takes, the longer the Diamondbacks are going to be looking up at someone else in the division standings. Arizona needs Jackson and Reynolds to become the legit power threats they are capable of being and for Drew, Young, and Upton to be able to get on base and not just be all-or-nothing batters because the D-Backs were near the bottom in several offensive categories last season.
Fantasy Impact:
Webb and Haren are both top 10 starting pitchers with Webb going somewhere from 3-5 after Johan Santana and Jake Peavy. According to CBS Sportsline, he is being drafted 31st on average. Haren, on the other hand, is being taken around the late 4th to early 5th round. Both pitchers are going to put up great numbers just like last season when both had ERAs just above 3 and averaged over 7 strikeouts per 9 innings.
In his limited outings, Johnson actually had numbers just as impressive as the two aces (3.81 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11.4 K/9), but it’s still to be seen if he can last more than the 10 starts he made it through last season before having to have yet another back surgery. There is great risk in selecting Johnson, but he could also pay large dividends. Consider him the top injury-risk sleeper this season. He is a great pickup from round 18 and up.
Owings and Scherzer aren’t draftable, but keep an eye on them because both have the ability to put together a solid streak of quality starts. In the pen, Lyon isn’t going to be the prototypical closer. He is a sinkerballer who pitches to contact (only 4.9 K/9 last season). However, he did have great numbers in other categories last year (6 W, 2.68 ERA, 1.24 ERA).
If he can carry those number over to his new position as closer, he is a solid middle of the pack closer as the D-Backs should have a lot of close games without a dominant offense. But keep an eye out, because closers who pitch to contact generally end up blowing up. Pena and Qualls both put up good numbers last season, as well, and could easily slide into the closer role if Lyon struggles.
The top two offensive fantasy threats are outfield mates Byrnes and Young. Byrnes is being drafted in the 4-6 round range, but we caution you to not expect another 20/50 season. Based on the history of those few that have recorded incredible 20/50 seasons, only four players have ever had more than one 20/50 season (Rickey Henderson, Joe Morgan, Cesar Cedeno, Eric Davis).
Young has been a 5-10 rounder thus far based on his potential, and if he shows he can increase his batting average, he could be a steal in these rounds, but last season’s .237 was atrocious. (He managed an OBP of less than .300 as a leadoff hitter.) In Spring Training, he has worked more on going the opposite way, and it’s reported he is being more patient at the plate. If these reports are true, it would not be unreasonable to predict Young could increase his average and OBP by 20-30 points. With an increased OBP, Young instantly becomes more of a stolen base threat making him an even more desirable selection.
Hudson and Drew are respectful middle infield draft picks in the mid rounds, but they are not close to the elite middle infielders as neither has top-notch power or speed. Upton is likely to struggle at points this season, but based on his upside he is worth taking a late round flier on, especially in a keeper league. If you don’t draft him and he begins to struggle, watch the waiver wire. If he becomes available let him start to pull out of his slump and then gobble him up because just as he will have his slumps, he will also have his streaks.
Snyder, Jackson, and Reynolds are being drafted around 50% of the time or less. Each could be worth a late round flier as each is young and developing, but there will likely be a more solid choice at each’s position. Regardless, these are three more guys to keep on the watch list.
2008 projection: (91-71), 1st place
Team MVP: Randy Johnson
Also, check out our NL West preview with links to our team outlooks for each of Arizona’s division foes.
Shotgun Spratling
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