Fantasy: Rang Report - Suprise Stars
Johnny Cueto delivers against Milwaukee earlier this week. He has also delivered for fantasy owners thus far. (AP Photo/Ron Kuenstler)
The 2008 Major League Baseball season has started with a bang, and many players have came out of nowhere to post spectacular numbers over the first two weeks. However, all fantasy baseball players need to realize the season is a marathon, not a sprint, and it is far to early to give up on a player who starts slow, especially if they are an established major league player. However, here are some names that have caught the eye over the first two weeks:
Johnny Cueto (SP CIN) – Yes, Johnny Cueto sounds more like a character in a John Wayne movie, but the Reds’ young pitcher has dazzled big league hitters over his first two starts. The Dominican import began the season with a bang with a 7 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 10K performance over Arizona, but I was more anxious to see how Cueto would rebound against Milwaukee’s powerful lineup. All Cueto did was throw 6.1 innings, gave up 5 hits, had 0 walks and 8 strikeouts. His season line thus far: 13.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 18 K, and a WHIP of 0.45.
Cueto has basically dominated in the minors, while striking out about a better per inning, and posting a WHIP in the 1.05-1.09 range in his young pitching career. Expect Cueto to have a solid rookie season, and end up like a Tim Lincecum of a year ago. Cueto should be owned in all leagues and formats at this point of the season.
Edwin Jackson (SP TB) – The former promising young pitching prospect looks like he has finally figured something out this year. After posting consecutive seasons of a 5+ ERA and a 1.75+ WHIP, Jackson is finally showing some of the promise he conveyed in the Dodgers’ organization. Through his first two starts, against Seattle and New York Yankees, Jackson has posted: 14 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 6 BB, 10 K, 0.93 WHIP.
Even though Jackson has been terrific so far, he is prone to the walk, as evident by his 3.9 BB/9 rate this year, and a career BB/9 rate of 4.96. He is a similar player to Oliver Perez, circa 2007, as he has tremendous upside (he’s still only 24), can strike batters out, but also will walk more than his fair share. Jackson seems to pitching with confidence early on, but he could be a risky addition.
Mike Jacobs (1B FLA) – Jacobs has been tearing it up for the first place Florida Marlins (yea…who would have thought the Marlins would even come close to first place this season). After racking up three more hits and walloping another home run Friday night, Jacobs has 5 homers and 10 RBI while having scored 8 runs. He has shown during his first two seasons in Florida he can hit the long ball. He has 25 HR, 100 RBI power, but the major concern with him is whether or not he can keep up his average (career .269 hitter). He is hitting .286 thus far, and if he can maintain that average, he provides some pop in the Florida lineup behind Hanley Ramirez.
Nate McLouth (OF PIT) – The Pirates leadoff hitter has absolutely raked early in the 2008 season. Known as a gap hitter with speed, McClouth has already belted 7 doubles, 1 triple, and a homer, as well as driving in 10 runs and scoring 7 himself. His current average stands at .391, and his OPS is a whopping 1.069. McClouth should be on rosters for his stolen base potential (22 last season), but his owners have to be ecstatic with his overall offensive production. Also, remember his line from last year is relatively impressive: 329 AB, 62 R, 13 HR, 38 RBI. 22 SB, .258 AVG, and .810 OPS. If McClouth is still on the waiver wire, go get him NOW.
Mark Reynolds (3B ARI) – Take a guess who the number one player in Yahoo fantasy baseball is? ARod? David Wright? Miguel Cabrera? Ryan Braun? No, try another third bagger. If you guessed Mark Reynolds, give yourself a pat on the back, and then get the hell out of the house and off of Yahoo fantasy baseball.
Reynolds has tore up the early pitching, already belting 5 homers and driving in 13 runs. His average stands at .306, but his OPS is at 1.109. Will Reynolds continue the 90 HR, 234 RBI pace he is on? Obviously, the answer is no, but one should remember he did hit 17 homers and drive in 62 runs in only 366 at bats a year ago. It is reasonable Reynolds could hit 25+ homers and drive in 100 runs, and he could be a valuable asset to anyone’s fantasy team.
George Sherrill (RP BAL) – Sherrill came to Baltimore in the Erik Bedard/Adam Jones trade this winter and has made the Orioles happy with his early season consistency as the team’s closer. He already has 4 saves, which is tied for second in the majors, and has a 0.00 ERA and a WHIP of 0.55. After examining his line last year from Seattle: 45.2 IP, 2.36 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 17 BB, and 56 K, it looks like Sherrill could be a surprise closer who could be around the 30 save mark and have great ratios.
These players are not household fantasy names, but all could wind up being the difference of winning or losing a league. Who predicted Fausto Carmona would go from unreliable closer to dominant starter in just one year?
Every year in fantasy baseball, there are players that slip through the cracks and end up being very productive. These are just 3 pitchers and 3 hitters to watch, but there is no guarantee any of the aforementioned players will sustain their great starts. Expect them to regress some as the season unfolds, but the interest and fun in fantasy baseball is picking that player who is poised to beat the odds and have a sensational season.
Derek Rang
April 12th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Derek,
Do you think Edwin Jackson will really maintain this pace or at least be a solid contributor throughout the year? He was a top prospect who seemed to never pan out. Maybe this is his year but I’m not sure if I would be willing to trade for him yet. What do you think?
DJ’s last blog post..My Abridged NHL Playoff Predictions
April 13th, 2008 at 11:54 am
DJ,
Honestly, I do not think Edwin Jackson will keep up this torried pace, but he could potentially be a solid contributor, if you are short on pitching. As I stated in the post, he would be a very risky addition, because of the lines he has put up the last two years and high walk rates, but he may finally be figuring something out. To hold the Yankees to five hit, one run baseball is promising, but in his second start against Seattle (8 IP, 0 R), the Mariners are projected to score the fewest runs in the American League. We just need a bigger sample of work to make a true judgement about Jackson, but I would not be willing to trade for him at this point, but a waiver addition might be necessary if you need the pitching.
July 7th, 2008 at 8:03 am
[...] of players that come out of no where to surprise us and become instant stars. We touched on some players who jumped out to incredible starts after the first couple of weeks of the baseball [...]