Fantasy: Rang Report - Buy Low
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Matt Cain is a “buy low” possibility that could get you back in the race for your fantasy baseball championship (AP Photo/Ben Margot).
As we gather with family and friends on Memorial Day weekend, we must remember that nearly a third of the Major League Baseball season has passed us, and for those of you whose fantasy teams are faltering, there is still hope, but it is likely time to make some changes.
One successful method that could get you back in the running for your league title is the “buy low” strategy, in which you nab up or trade for underperforming players. Using split-statistics, in which the players statistics are divided up into each individual month or Pre/Post All-Star Break, here are a few players who might not appear to be overly appealing now, but as the weather heats up, these players seem to follow:
Matt Cain - As of his May 18th start against the White Sox, Cain has a pedestrian fantasy line: 2 W, 61 IP, 32 BB, 53 K, 4.57 ERA, and a 1.43 WHIP. Obviously, except for his 7.81 K/9 rate, that line is unimpressive. However, let’s examine Cain’s combined stats after the All-Star Break during the 2006 and 2007 seasons: 11 W, 189.2 IP, 180 K, 3.53 ERA and a WHIP of 1.18.
With the Giants 11 games under .500 and having scored only 179 runs on the season, third fewest in the majors, Cain might struggle to get wins in the second half of the season, but any fantasy owner can live with the solid ERA and WHIP ratios as well as the 8.5 K/9 rate Cain has shown in the second half of the season. If a current owner in not pleased with Cain at this point, feel free to offer a modest proposal.
Fausto Carmona - Carmona was one of the feel-good stories of the 2007 season after he went from failed closer to dominating starter, winning 19 games for the Cleveland Indians, which prompted many owners to take him in rounds 9-12 in this year’s fantasy draft. Carmona has been wildy inconsistent during the 2008 season. He has a 3.10 ERA, has walked more batters than he has fanned, and has a high whip of 1.59.
Then in his last start against Texas, things got worse when the right-hander strained his hip running to cover first base. He now is likely to miss up to four weeks. However, when Carmona gets healthy, fantasy owners need look to his Post All-Star stats of a year ago: 9 W, 107 IP, 76 K, 2.26 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Even though I would never advise trading for a player on the DL, wait until he comes off, and see if Carmona regains the form that made him one of the most dominating starters of the 2007 season.
Robinson Cano - As Cano comes into Memorial Day weekend with a .232 average and a .640 OPS, let me show you the totals Cano has put up in the second half of the season the past two seasons.
2006 - 211 AB / 11 HR / 51 RBI / 2 SB / .365 AVG / 1.015 OPS
2007 - 289 AB / 13 HR / 57 RBI / 2 SB / .343 AVG / .953 OPS
Second Half Totals: 500 AB / 24 HR / 108 RBI / 4 SB / .352 AVG / .984 OPS
If an impatient owner wants to dump Cano, put together a deal, and you’ll be the one laughing as you make a run at your fantasy title in the second half.
That is just a sampling of players you can buy low on. Other players you can expect to break out of their slumps as the season continues:
Ryan Howard - Howard’s power numbers are there, but expect him to raise the .202 average. He’s hitting .250 in May with a .953 OPS, after posting a .168 average in April, and remember – Howard is a .282 career hitter.
Adam LaRoche – After another horrid April where LaRoche hit .163 with a .472 OPS, he has hit .278/4 HR/16 RBI/.862 OPS. LaRoche could be a valuable ultility player on your roster with the capability of ending up with 25 HR and 90 RBI, even though he always seems to start slow. (Also, as a side note as a LaRoche owner myself – Dear Adam, TAKE THE ADEROL! Thanks.)
C.C. Sabathia - Even though the reigning Cy Young Award winner logged 241 innings last year and started slow this season, expect Sabathia to rebound from his atrocious beginning. Over his last three starts, Sabathia has lowered his ERA from 7.51 to 5.14, won 2 games, struck out 28 batters and walked only 5. The stuff is still there, don’t give up on him, and if possible, slip him away from another owner.
Vladimir Guerrero - The free-swinging Vlad the Impaler has a career low .254 average for this late into any season. Last season, Guerrero struck out in 9% of his plate appearances. This season, he has struck out in 14% of his plate appearances, which shows that he is striking out more than usual. However, from a hitter with a .322 career average and a .964 OPS, I would expect Vlad to turn the corner as the weather gets warmer.
Frank Thomas - Thomas is a notoriously slow starter. The combined March/April is the only month Thomas has a career average under .300. Last season, it took him until the last week of May to get going. He even tried to tell the Toronto Blue Jays when they benched him earlier this season. Alas, it ended with the Big Hurt being released and, subsequently, signing back with Oakland. If Thomas is available for cheap and you have room for a power hitting .270-.280 UTIL, now may be the best time to snatch him up as Thomas has heated up in May (.348 AVG, .989 OPS in May with 4 HR in his last 6 games).
DRang
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