2008 Tampa Bay (no longer Devil) Rays Outlook
2007: (66-96), 4th place
Manager: Joe Maddon (3rd season)
Key Additions -
P Matt Garza
P Troy Percival
SS Jason Bartlett
OF/DH Cliff Floyd
INF Willy Aybar
Key Losses -
OF Delmon Young (to MIN)
OF Elijah Dukes (to WAS)
SS Brendan Harris (to MIN)
SS Josh Wilson (to PIT)
P Casey Fossum (to PIT) (if getting rid of him is really consider a loss)
Projected Starting Lineup -
C - Dioner Navarro
1B - Carlos Pena
2B - Akinori Iwamura
SS - Jason Bartlett
3B - Evan Longoria
LF -Carl Crawford
CF - B.J. Upton
RF - Rocco Baldelli
DH - Cliff Floyd, Jonny Gomes
Projected Rotation -
1 - Scott Kazmir (L)
2 - James Shields (R)
3 - Matt Garza (R)
4 - Edwin Jackson (R)
5 - Andy Sonnanstine (R)
CL - Troy Percival (R)
SU - Al Reyes (R), Dan Wheeler (R)
2008 Outlook:
This may be the first year the (no longer Devil) Rays actually finish above .500. The Rays have had talented prospects, and still have several developing in the minors waiting for their opportunity in the next couple of years, but management finally has decided to spend a little dough. They raised the payroll from $24 million on Opening Day last season to more than $40 million now.
If management shows they are willing to pay the prime talent that has come up through the system (i.e.: Crawford, Kazmir, Upton, etc.) to stay in Tampa Bay, this team could be scary good in the next couple of years. The farm system is stocked with prospects, especially in the pitching department with Baseball America Top 100 talent in David Price (10), Jake McGee (15), Wade Davis (17), and Jeff Niemann (99). Add hitting prospects Reid Brignac (39), Desmond Jennings (59), and the #2 prospect overall Longoria, and the Rays tied division rival Boston for the most prospects in the top 100. Baseball America’s Jim Callis rated the Rays’ system the top in baseball.
While this year may not have a World Series championship at the end of it, this season could set the foundation for a future championship. It’ll begin with a stellar outfield and a vastly improved infield. Crawford, Upton, and Baldelli (if healthy) can cover a lot of ground in the outfield, which really helps out the young pitching staff.
Crawford is probably the least-renowned star in the big leagues. He does everything the right way; he is probably the hardest worker on the team; and he came up from the lowest level of the minors in Princeton, West Virginia to stardom in Tampa Bay. Last season, he hit .315 (his 6th consecutive season rasing his average) with 11 HR and 80 RBI. He also stole 50 bases and has averaged 53 steals in his first five full seasons.
Upton had his breakout season last year and will only look to improve this year. What would be ideal for the projected #2 hitter in the Rays’ lineup would be for ”Bossman Junior” to cut down on his 154 strikeouts from last season in only 474 at bats. That means he was striking out almost 1 in every 3 at bats, something that must be curbed for him to be solid in the two hole.
The question will be who will fill the right field position when Baldelli inevitably goes on the DL…if he makes it into the lineup as he still isn’t full strength as it is. Either Floyd or Gomes could take their ‘defensive prowess’ out to right, or Joe Maddon could give that spot to Justin Ruggiano. With Ruggiano, the Rays would avoid having the defensive liability of Floyd/Gomes.
The biggest question heading into the season lies at the hot corner. Will Longoria start the season in Tampa Bay or Durham? The Rays moved Iwamura from third to second in order to make room for Longoria. In Spring Training, he has 2 extra base hits, 3 RBI, and 4 runs in 4 starts. If he maintains this, how could they not give him the nod? If, for some reason, the club decides it better for him to start the season in the minors, Willy Aybar will battle with former top prospect Joel Guzman for the starting position.
Guzman could also see utility time at any of the infield positions throughout the year, and if he gets on a role, it’s best Maddon find him somewhere to play everyday because the 22-year-old, who seems to have been a top prospect forever, can hit a baseball a very long way.
While he isn’t going to be winning any awards, Bartlett comes in as a huge upgrade at shortstop. Bartlett is better defensively and will be more consistent at the plate than either Brendan Harris or Josh Wilson was last year. Combine the addition of Bartlett with the move of Iwamura and the middle infield goes from being grossly inept last season to stable (not flashy or showy, but you know they are going to do the little things and do things the right way)
Another renovation upgrade the Rays accomplished this off-season was the pitching staff. Jae Seo, Shawn Camp, and the interminable Casey Fossum are each gone from the bullpen. Reyes no longer has to fill the closer role as the team picked up Percival to fill that duty. Also, the acquisition of Wheeler last season makes the bullpen deeper putting less stress on the arms that remain from last season after they took a beating.
There will also be less pressure on Jackson and Sonnanstine or J.P. Howell or Jason Hammell or Jeff Niemann or whomever fills the 4th and 5th slots in the rotation because of the Delmon Young trade for Garza. With Garza, the Rays have a formidable trio of young studs at the front of the rotation.
Kazmir and Shields is one of the top righty/lefty 1-2 combinations in the league (Seattle’s tandem of Erik Bedard & Felix Hernandez and Cleveland’s Carmona/Sabathia duo are probably slightly better) and both have several great seasons ahead of them. There are some Spring Training concerns with Kazmir’s pitching elbow but he expects to be ready by Opening Day.
Fantasy Impact:
Last season, Shields was a waiver wire pick up in almost every league out there. He came out of nowhere to put up 12 wins, a 3.85 ERA, and 184 Ks in 215 innnings, while only walking 1.4 batters per nine innings, and if he would have gotten any support, his numbers would have been even better. Some may shy away from Shields because he pitches for the Rays and has to often faceoff with the AL East lineups. That is a perfect scenario for you because then you can sweep up Shields for yourself and possibly even a round or two later than he should be around.
As we discussed last month, Kazmir was shut down as a Spring Training precaution when he felt some discomfort in his pitching elbow while warming up. If healthy, Kazmir is a top 15 fantasy pitcher. He will be in the hunt for the AL strikeout crown; he has three consecutive season with an ERA sub-4; and he is a Yankee and Red Sox killer (in 10 starts against the AL east frontrunners, he had a combined 2.73 ERA with 76 K in 59 1/3 innings)
Garza has the potential to be a fantasy star, but it may be another year before that potential matures. He comes off having a 3.69 ERA last season, but how will he respond to greater expectations this season? He’s a late round pick to gamble on, and if he goes undrafted in your league, one of the guys to immediately put on the watch list.
Carlos Pena broke out last year after having only 33 at bats in 2006. He had career highs in every fantasy category besides stolen bases and became the first player in major league history to hit 40+ home runs a year after being released. Will he be a one year wonder? He will put up numbers but numbers a little less impressive than last season.
Iwamura will be a better draft choice this season with eligibility at both 2B & 3B, but with only 7 home runs and 34 RBI last season, he’s a late round to non-selection. A mid to late round selection will be Longoria depending on where he starts the season. If he starts in the minors, don’t be afraid to take a late round flier on him and stash him on your bench until he gets to the big leagues. He’s going to give you Ryan Zimmerman rookie production instead of Alex Gordon rookie production.
One of the biggest draft day enigmas is Crawford. In mock drafts, he has went anywhere from the first round to nearly the 100th selection. Though Crawford’s production has not slowed, his value has decreased due to the new wave of speedy youngsters that have entered the league in the last couple of years. With players like Ryan Braun or Hanley Ramirez who are capable of 30-30 seasons, Carl’s 11 home runs cause him to fall to the 4-7 round range.
It even appears teammate B.J. Upton has become a more valuable draft selection. Upton’s position versatility and little bit better power than Crawford gives him the edge because otherwise the two players are very similar. While both Upton and Crawford will be safe picks, avoid Baldelli, Floyd, and Gomes. Injury will kill you with Baldelli and Floyd and Gomes doesn’t produce enough in other categories to make up for his sub-par batting average.
2008 projection: (82-80), 3rd place
Team MVP: Carl Crawford
Also, check out our AL East preview with links to our team outlooks for each of Tampa Bay’s division foes.
Shotgun Spratling
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