2007: (89-73), 1st place

Manager: Charlie Manuel (4th season)

Key Additions -
P Brad Lidge
3B - Pedro Feliz
OF - Geoff Jenkins
OF - So Taguchi

Key Losses -
OF Aaron Rowand (to SF)
OF Michael Bourn (to HOU)
2B Tadahito Iguchi (to SD)
P Jon Leiber (to CHC)
P Freddy Garcia (released)

Projected Starting Lineup -
C - Carlos Ruiz
1B - Ryan Howard
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Jimmy Rollins
3B - Pedro Feliz
LF - Pat Burrell
CF - Shane Victorino
RF - Geoff Jenkins

Projected Rotation -
1 - Cole Hamels
2 - Brett Myers
3 - Kyle Kendrick
4 - Jamie Moyer
5 - Adam Eaton

CL - Tom Gordon, Brad Lidge
SU - J.C. Romero

Outlook:
After Mitch Williams gave up Joe Carter’s famous walk-off World Series home run, the Phillies decided to take a 14-year layoff from the playoffs. Then last season, they made one of the most miraculous late season comebacks to win the division (along with the help of the Mets’ complete collapse). However, they promptly were swept by the red hot Colorado Rockies, who eventually lost in the World Series.

The disappointment of losing appears to have made the Fightin’ Phils even more hungry for the upcoming season. With a highly potent lineup that includes three MVP candidates (Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins having won the last two and Chase Utley may have won last year if he hadn’t missed 30 games), a “Flyin’ Hawaiian,” and “Pat the Bat” hitting in a stadium almost as small as the Marlins’ chance of competing with a sub-$10 million payroll, the Phillies can put runs on the board and fast.

What is missing from the lineup and defensively in centerfield is Aaron Rowand. What Rowand contributed on the field probably isn’t even as important as what the Phillies will miss from Rowand in the clubhouse. Despite missing Rowand, who has been replaced by Jenkins (Victorino shifts to centerfield), the big question for this squad is the starting rotation.

Hamels is a stud at the front of the rotation even though Charlie Manuel is giving Myers the ball on Opening Day. Myers closed last season but is back in the rotation thanks to the acquisition of Lidge. Myers has good stuff and is good at pulling off practical jokes to boot, but he is still inconsistent and doesn’t have the great stuff Hamels possesses.

The rest of the rotation is a crap shoot. Kendrick won 10 games and compiled a 3.87 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, but he only struck out 49 batters in 121 innings and allowed 129 hits. Expect his numbers to rise somewhat this season. Moyer is an aged veteran who is doing the same thing now that he did when he came into the league - throw slow, slow, and slower while locating. He’s not fooling anyone, and with the small ballpark anytime he makes a mistake, it’s likely to be runs on the board. And as for Adam Eaton? Philly fans better just hope Kris Benson hurries up and returns.

In the bullpen, if Lidge can return to his form as one of the league’s most dominant closer all will be well. But if he struggles, the job would fall to Gordon, whose arm could completely fall off at any time. J.C. Romero and Ryan Madson have both been stellar behind Gordon and will continue to do so this season.

Unless the pitching staff overperforms or the Phillies make a move before the trade deadline, they are destined to be disappointed by not making it back to the playoffs. In their small stadium, the Phillies need some sinkerballers to get ground balls instead of someone like Eaton with an ERA over 6.00.

Fantasy Impact:
If Chase Utley wins the MVP this season (and he could), the Phillies will become the first team in MLB history with three consecutive MVPs from three different players. Not too shabby for a fantasy infield. Utley is the best 2B in the big leagues. Just look at these ridiculous second baseman stats: .332 AVG, 48 2B, 22 HR, 103 RBI, and 104 Runs (and he missed 30 games!).

Combined with Utley, Rollins makes up the other half of the best middle infield in fantasy baseball. Then there is the big boy at first base. Howard is going to hit at least 40 home runs and probably will drive in 150 runs. All three are fantasy gold.

Also look for the Phillies outfield to have solid fantasy potential. Victorino is the best choice because he is going to steal 50 bases and hit 20 HR in the mini-stadium. Look for Burrell to possibly put it all together this year. We know it has been said every year he’s played, but this could be the year. He hit .295 in the second half of the season, and if he can just hit for average, the power numbers are going to be there. Even if he is his normal self, 25 HR and 95 RBI isn’t a bad choice for 3rd or 4th outfielder. Lastly, expect 20-25 HR and 80 RBI from Jenkins if he plays full time.

As for the pitching staff, Hamels and Myers are solid options while Lidge is solid if he returns to dominating National League hitters. Depending on Lidge and his progress from knee surgery, Gordon or Romero could pick you up some saves throughout the year.

2008 projection: (88-72), 3rd place
Team MVP: Chase Utley

Rosenblogger

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