2008 New York Yankees Outlook
2007: (93-69), 2nd place
Manager: Joe Girardi (1st Season)
Key Additions -
M - Joe Girardi
P - LaTroy Hawkins
3B - Morgan Ensberg
Key Losses -
M - Joe Torre (to LA)
P - Roger Clemens (steroids/perjury)
P - Luis Vizcaino (to COL)
1B - Doug Mientkiewicz (to PIT)
P - Ron Villone (to STL)
1B - Andy Phillips (to CIN)
Projected Starting Lineup -
C - Jorge Posada
1B - Jason Giambi
2B - Robinson Cano
SS - Derek Jeter
3B - Alex Rodriguez
LF - Johnny Damon
CF - Melky Cabrera
RF - Bobby Abreu
DH - Hideki Matsui
Projected Rotation -
1 - Andy Pettite (L)
2 - Chien-Ming Wang (R)
3 - Phil Hughes (R)
4 - Joba Chamberlain (R)
5 - Mike Mussina (R), Ian Kennedy (R)
CL: Mariano Rivera (R)
SU: Kyle Farnsworth (R), Chamberlain
2008 Outlook:
There won’t be many new faces on this year’s Yankees squad as GM Brian Cashman did not pull the trigger on a big name signing or trade. Instead, it appears the Yanks are ready and willing to turn the ball over to their up-and-coming pitching staff with the likes of young studs Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy.
The one really important new face in the clubhouse will be that of new manager Joe Girardi. After not winning the division last year after nine consecutive pennants, manager Joe Torre and the Yankees parted ways, and in steps Girardi.
Girardi takes over the most prolific lineup in the game. According to the ReclinerGm’s calculations, the lineup possesses 36 trips to the All-Star game, 20 silver sluggers, 4 MVPs, and a couple of future Hall of Famers. The probable 8-hole hitter, Cano, has hit .314 and averaged 78 R, 39 doubles, 14 HR, and 79 RBI in his first three seasons in the bigs. Plus, he is coming off his most productive season (.306, 93, 41, 19, 97).
The only problem with this accomplished lineup is going to be the possibility of the injury bug. Besides Cano and Cabrera, the entire lineup is over 30 years old and a few of the guys are in the decline stages of their careers. Regardless, they will still put up lots of runs with the likes of Jeter, Abreu, Rodriguez, Giambi, and Matsui in the heart of the lineup.
There are age and injury issues with the staff as well. Pettite, Mussina, and Rivera are past their primes. Pettite and Rivera are still capable of being above average and putting up good numbers, but Mussina’s time is almost assuredly over. It is only a matter of time before Ian Kennedy takes over his spot in the rotation.
What could save Mussina, however, is the innings limitations the Yanks want to put on Chamberlain this year. The team hopes to limit him to somewhere around the 140-150 innings range. They’ll attempt to accomplish that by only giving him a certain amount of time in the rotation and the rest of the innings for Chamberlain will come out of the pen. The decision for Girardi will be when to do which.
The true ace of the staff will be Chien-Ming Wang. Back-to-back 19 win seasons and sub-4 ERA, make Wang a slightly better investment than constantly injured Carl Pavano (19 starts, 4.76 ERA since signing in 2005), who makes about 20 times as much as Wang. The best thing about Pavano, who will again miss most of this season, is that this is the final year of his fat contract.
Another concern for New York is going to be who can get the ball to Rivera. The Yanks have stated they don’t want Rivera to enter the game any earlier than the ninth inning this season, so who throws the 6th, 7th, and/or 8th innings? During his time in the pen, Chamberlain will be the primary set-up man, but when he’s in the rotation, Farnsworth assumes the role.
After a career season in 2005, Farnsworth’s numbers went down in 2006 but nothing of concern. However, his strikeouts dropped to less than one per inning last year (48 K in 60 IP) for the first time since he was a part time starter his first two seasons in the league. Other options include LaTroy Hawkins, Jonathan Albaladejo, Ross Olhendorf, and Jose Veras.
Fantasy Impact:
Your #1 pick for another season is last season’s AL MVP — Alex Rodriguez. He is the best hitter in the game and will put up numbers to show that. The three time MVP hit 54 home runs, 156 RBI, and still stole 24 bases…too good.
The middle infield combination of Cano and Jeter are going to be solid performers and will go somewhere between the 3-7 round. Jeter’s numbers fell off a little bit last season, and he has fallen from a top 2 shortstop pick (with Tejada) to 4th or 5th behind the NL East shortstops. Cano is also top 5 at his position, and we don’t doubt his numbers will continue to increase.
If Giambi could stay healthy, he’d be worthy of a mid to late round pick, but last year he only recorded 254 at bats due to injury. He’s become very fragile, so we caution you about selecting him. However, if he does find his way to the DL keep an eye on backup Shelley Duncan. Duncan is close to being a replica of Giambi only he is younger and healthy.
No one saw Posada breaking out a career year last season, and no one expects him to be able to maintain that level again this season…guess what? Neither do we. Now that he has a contract extension expect him to fall back from last year’s numbers to his more mediocre .275/65/20/85 averages.
Abreu is still a viable outfiled option as he still has five category potential. He’s a top 20 outfielder, so draft him as such. Matsui, on the other hand, appears he may be headed downhill, though. He put up good numbers last season but is being moved to the DH and is coming off of arthroscopic knee surgery. Cabrera and Damon, the other outfielders, will be late round selections.
As for fantasy pitchers, Wang and Pettite will get you somewhere from 13-20 wins and have a decent ERA, so they are definite draft picks. The question will be where to select Hughes, Chamberlain, and possibly Kennedy, the trio that some say could be the next Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz.
Some have drafted Hughes ahead of Wang while he has also fallen down to nearly the 20th round. Chamberlain won’t have as much fantasy value if he is relegated to set-up duties due to his innings limitations, and Kennedy does nothing for you as long as he isn’t in the rotation either. Don’t overdraft, but don’t leave these guys undrafted, especially Hughes because with that lineup behind them they are going to get Ws.
2008 projection: (88-74)
Team MVP: Alex Rodriguez
Also, check out our AL East preview with links to our team outlooks for each of New York’s division foes.
Shotgun Spratling
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