2008 Houston Astros Outlook
2007: (73-89), 4th place
Manager: Cecil Cooper (1st full season)
Key Additions -
P - Jose Valverde
SS - Miguel Tejada
2B - Kaz Matsui
OF - Michael Bourn
P - Shawn Chacon
OF - Darin Erstad
P - Oscar Villarreal
P - Doug Brocail
Key Losses -
2B - Craig Biggio (retired)
P - Brad Lidge (to PHI)
P - Chad Qualls (to ARI)
OF - Luke Scott (to BAL)
SS - Adam Everett (to MIN)
IF - Chris Burke (to ARI)
OF - Josh Anderson (to ATL)
OF - Orlando Palmeiro (free agency)
Projected Starting Lineup -
C - J.R. Towles
1B - Lance Berkman
2B - Kaz Matsui
SS - Miguel Tejada
3B - Ty Wigginton
LF - Carlos Lee
CF - Michael Bourn
RF - Hunter Pence
Projected Rotation -
1 - Roy Oswalt (R)
2 - Brandon Backe (R)
3 - Wandy Rodriguez (L)
4 - Woody Williams (R)
5 - Shawn Chacon (R)
CL: Jose Valverde (R)
SU: Doug Brocail (R)
2008 Outlook:
The Astros attempted to overhaul much of the team, especially in the bullpen. No longer do ‘Stros fans have to wonder about whether Brad Lidge is going to be lights out or haunted by Albert Pujols every outing. With Lidge, Houston got rid of everyone of his bullpen mates not named Dave Borowski, as Borowski is the only hold over from last season.
Instead, it will be the over exciting relief of Jose Valverde in the 9th inning this season. Setting up Valverde will be Brocail, Geoff Geary, Oscar Villarreal, and Borowski. Valverde is an upgrade over last season’s Lidge, but Qualls and Dan Wheeler (who was traded at the deadline to Tampa) were ultra reliable in the set-up role, but only time will truly tell.
Houston also improved up the middle by adding Matsui, Tejada, and Bourn. The increased range these three provide, especially Bourn, will help the pitchers tremendously, and with Bourn in the lineup, Pence gets to move over to cover lots of ground in right field.
With Bourn and Matsui’s added speed at the top of the lineup, the Astros have a daunting lineup. If Bourn and Matsui get on base, pitchers could have to feed fastballs to Tejada, Berkman, Lee, and Pence. Then at the bottom of the lineup, the Astros have perennial trade bait and consummate professional hitter Ty Wigginton and highly touted catching prospect J.R. Towles.
Add a strong bench of players who have all been everyday starters in the past: Brad Ausmus, Geoff Blum, Darin Erstad, Mark Loretta, and Jose Cruz Jr., and this team should be able to sustain an injury or routine days of rest and still have an imposing offense.
However, there are questions in the lineup as well. Bourn is still developing, and this will be his first everyday starting job. Matsui is currently out with an injury listed as an anal fissure (a true pain in the butt injury…what it was irresistible). Tejada is being investigated by the FBI over possible perjury charges stemming from steroids investigations and is seeing the decline of his career. Berkman is coming off a down year for him. Pence is liable to run through anything (including a glass door this spring), and despite Pence’s strong rookie season, he and Towles aren’t proven players.
While each of those issues have their own legitimacy, there are looming questions with the starting pitching. There is Oswalt and then…? Backe is looking to rebound from elbow surgery that caused him to miss most of the 2007 season. Williams is pretty much done, and it’ll be interesting to see just how long he stays in the rotation.
Wandy Rodriguez has yet to put it all together. He had incredible numbers (6-3, 2.94 ERA) at Minute Maid Park, but looked absolutely terrible on the road (3-10, 6.37 ERA). He also just strained his oblique, which can be a lingering injury. For the fifth spot, there is open competition between Chacon, Chris Sampson, Runelvys Hernandez, and Jack Cassel.
Unless Backe and Rodriguez are able to give consistent starts in the #2 and #3 spots in the rotation, the Astros hitters are going to have a lot of pressure to put up 6 or 8 runs on most nights, and there are very few teams that can do that on a consistent basis.
Fantasy Impact:
Oswalt is in the second-tier of top pitchers. Look for him somewhere between rounds 5-10. He should get adequate run support — something that has been a concern in the past. His career high ERA is 3.49, and he is more likely to finish with something around 3. Also, look for this fantasy stud to get back up to 18-20 wins.
Other than Oswalt the only fantasy pitcher worth drafting will be Valverde. Like Oswalt he will go in the second wave at his position. He is being considered to be about the 5th or 6th best closer by several experts, but the experts also think Valverde is a risk because they don’t think he can put together two solid seasons in a row. While we think he can put together another solid year, he isn’t going to get another 47 saves because of the team he is playing on. Take him somewhere around the 8-10 round range.
Throughout the lineup there are fantasy draft picks, but where will each go?
As the leadoff hitter, Bourn is going to score around 100 runs especially if he shows some plate discipline, and after stealing 18 bases in only 119 at bats last season, granted he was often used as a pinch hitter, he could feasibly steal anywhere from 40-65 bases. Consider him to be similar to Juan Pierre in terms of fantasy ability. He is an excellent sleeper that you should be able to get in the mid to late rounds.
Given a full year, Kaz Matsui is going to steal 30-40 bases and give you a solid batting average for a pick that you are going to get in the late rounds. Like Bourn, he isn’t going to give much of anything in the power categories, but if he stays healthy, is going to give excellent production in the speed categories.
Tejada is coming off a down year and entering the decline in his career. However, with the short porch in left field, he could see a rivival, but then again, he could possibly go through a similar, but smaller, media circus as Barry Bonds endured. If that happens or if he is indicted on perjury charges by the feds, don’t expect him to burst out with All-Star caliber numbers. He is considered to be one of the top 5-8 shortstops, but if in need of a shortstop take someone with the upside of Troy Tulowitzki, J.J. Hardy, or Jhonny Peralta.
Berkman and Lee will both go in the first five rounds, and if you can get them after the third round, they are a definite pickup. Lee is ultra consistent hitting an average of 32 HR, over 110 RBI, and scoring just under 100 runs. He also is going to steal 10-15 bases and hit around .300. What more could you ask in fantasy terms? Take Berkman after Lee because you may or may not get an incredible season out of him. You will get a good season, but will he make it a great one? He is hitting well in spring but we don’t put too much stock in spring numbers. Berkman does become more valuable if he has eligibility at multiple positions, but we still aren’t sold on drafting him until late in the third round or later.
Pence is a bit of an enigma because he excelled in his rookie season last year, but a sophomore slump isn’t out of the question. Eventually, he will put up very similar numbers to Lee with a better batting average. This year though we’re penciling him in for 80/25/100/15 making him a top 20 outfielder. Expect him to go around round 5.
Wigginton and Towles are both late round picks. Just make sure Wigginton has mutliple position eligibility in your league because he won’t be as valuable if he is only a third baseman. Towles would be a great pick in a keeper league, but how productive he’ll be this season is questionable. He’ll go through struggles but will be better than guys like Paul Lo Duca and Ryan Doumit, who are being drafted similiarly to Towles.
2008 projection: (79-83), 3rd place
Team MVP: Roy Oswalt
Also, check out our NL Central preview with links to our team outlooks for each of Houston’s division foes.
Shotgun Spratling
| 2.5 |
Leave a Reply