The Blue Workhorse

2007: (85-77), 1st place

Manager: Lou Pinella (2nd season)

Key Additions -
OF Kosuke Fukudome
P Jon Leiber
P Jose Ascanio

Key Losses -
P Mark Prior (to SD)
OF Jacque Jones (to DET)
OF Cliff Floyd (to TB)
C Jason Kendall (to MIL)
P Steve Trachsel (to BAL)
P Will Ohman (to ATL)

Projected Starting Lineup -
C - Geovany Soto
1B - Derrek Lee
2B - Mark DeRosa
SS - Ryan Theriot
3B - Aramis Ramirez
LF - Alfonso Soriano
CF - Felix Pie
RF - Kosuke Fukudome

Projected Rotation -
1 - Carlos Zambrano (R)
2 - Ted Lilly (L)
3 - Ryan Dempster (R)
4 - Rich Hill (R)
5 - Jon Leiber (R), Jason Marquis (R)

CL - Bob Howry (R), Carlos Marmol (R)
SU - Kerry Wood (R), Howry, Marmol

2008 Outlook:
This season will mark the 100th anniversary of the Cubs’ last World Series title, and the Cubbies would like nothing more than to mark it with another World Series title. After winning the NL Central last season, the Cubs have optimism they can be the Cubs team to break the curse of the billy goat.

The starting lineup, while it won’t be as good as the Yankees or division rival Houston, will be one of the top offenses in the league. They will score runs, and the top of the rotation is solid, so this team is the favorite to defend their NL Central title.

Zambrano, Lilly, and Hill are each going to give the Cubs a quality start nearly every time they toe the rubber. Dempster will move into the rotation after serving as the team’s closer the past three seasons. While he has only had mediocre to moderate success as a starter in the past, it’s evident Lou Pinella and the coaching staff have enough confidence in him to take the effort to move him into the rotation.

Battling for the final spot in the rotation are Jason Marquis and Leiber. Marquis started last season 5-2 with a 2.93 ERA but had a 5.73 ERA after the All-Star break causing him to fall out of favor with Pinella. Therefore, Leiber should be the frontrunner, but he hasn’t been a dominant pitcher in years. Really, he hasn’t even been a suitable end of the rotation starter since 2005.

A dark horse, should Leiber and/or Marquis struggle at the beginning of the season, will be the big lefty Sean Marshall. Marshall started 19 games last season and finished with a 3.92 ERA even though he had a 7-8 record.

A bigger question for the pitching staff is going to be who pitches the 8th and 9th innings this season with Dempster now in the rotation. Vying for the closer position and the top set-up role will be Howry, Marmol, and Wood. It appears Howry will start with the closer’s job, but Marmol could take over at any time. The guy’s numbers last year were more than just impressive: 5-1, 1.43 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 96 K in 69 1/3 innings. There is a chance Wood would get the nod because of the lighter workload of a closer as compared to a set-up role.

There is no telling who Pinella will beg for each role, much as no one knows what the fickle Pinella will do with the Cubs’ lineup. Will Soriano bat leadoff or 2nd behind Theriot? Where is Fukudome going to bat? How will Pinella manage the combination of speed and power in this lineup?

Look for Soriano and Lee to bounce back from somewhat down years. Fukudome is getting rave reviews from Pinella, but we prefer to see a player play before making our judgment. Ramirez will help the heart of the lineup produce, but how much production from the bottom of the lineup will be the question mark. DeRosa will be at full strength to open the season after having a heart procedure to correct a rapid heartbeat.

Geovany Soto is one of the top catching prospects in the game, so expect him to have some success this season, but also don’t be surprised when he experiences some struggles.

Fantasy Impact:
Felix Pie and Theriot may get selected late in deep fantasy leagues, but be advised to wait for them on the waiver wire. Pie, for one, still isn’t playing due to his testicular torsion injury.

Soriano and Lee will be bouncing back to have successful fantasy seasons as long as they can avoid the injury bug. Both should go in the second or third round. Ramirez will go somewhere between rounds 3-5 after the ARod, David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, and possibly even Ryan Braun go in the first round.

Zambrano is a part of that second wave of top tier pitchers that will go somewhere in the 5-10 round range. Hill has tremendous fantasy upside and will go towards the end or right after that second wave of pitchers. Lilly should go somewhere in the middle rounds of the draft. Last season, he went 15-8 with a 3.83 ERA and threw over 200 innings for the first time in his first year in the National League.

Whoever wins the closer’s position will be a valuable pickup with the Cubs possibly winning 90 or more games this season. Even if he doesn’t win the closer job, Marmol is worthy of a late round selection due to his incredible K per 9 numbers (12.5 per 9) and low WHIP.

The biggest mystery for the Cubs and maybe of the entire fantasy baseball draft is Fukudome. Thus far, each superstar Japanese position player that has entered the major leagues has had at least moderate success with both Hideki Matsui and Ichiro both becoming stars in the league. With the track record of the position players and the praise Pinella has bestowed upon Fukudome, he could be the next star. Many say he is a Bobby Abreu-type hitter, and if so, he is worthy of mid to late round pick easily. He could go higher, but we don’t want to overdraft when productive outfielders seem to be plentiful.

2008 projection: (84-78)
Team MVP: Derek Lee

Also, check out our NL Central preview with links to our team outlooks for each of Chicago’s division foes.

Shotgun Spratling

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