2008 Toronto Blue Jays Outlook
2007: (83-79), 3rd place
Manager: John Gibbons (4th season)
Key Additions -
SS David Eckstein
3B Scott Rolen
P Armando Benitez
C Rod Barajas
OF Shannon Stewart
Key Departures -
3B Troy Glaus (to STL)
P Josh Towers (to COL)
Projected Startling Lineup -
C - Gregg Zaun
1B - Lyle Overbay
2B - Aaron Hill
SS - David Eckstein
3B - Scott Rolen
LF - Matt Stairs, Reed Johnson
CF - Vernon Wells
RF - Alex Rios
DH - Frank Thomas
Projected Rotation -
1 - Roy Halladay (R)
2 - A.J. Burnett (R)
3 - Dustin McGowan (R)
4 - Shaun Marcum (R)
5 - Jesse Litsch (R)
CL: Jeremy Accardo (BJ Ryan out to begin season)
SU: Accardo (R), Scott Downs (L)
2008 Outlook:
The Toronto Blue Jays enter the 2008 season with expectations to compete in the tough American League east and possibly earn a trip to the postseason. Many things will have to go right for the Jays for this to happen, but they have reason to be optimistic.
The big headline in the off-season for Toronto was the third-base swap of talented, but often injured, Troy Glaus to St. Louis that brought in talented, but often injured, third baseman Scott Rolen. Rolen joins former teammate David Eckstein, to round out a St. Louis imported left-side of the infield, but what neccesitated the move for Eckstein? John McDonald made some ridiculous web gems last year and is one of the best, if not the best, defensive SS in the AL. This is all the more important due to the groundball nature of the majority of the pitching staff.
The Blue Jays could potentially have a dominating lineup if Vernon Wells, Frank Thomas, and Scott Rolen return to the days of .300 AVG/ 30+ HR/ and 100+ RBI’s, but that remains to be seen. Throw in a star-in-the-waiting in Alex Rios and his tremendous 2007 statistics: 114 R, .284 AVG, 24 HR, 85 RBI, and 17 SB, and the Jays appear capable of scoring some runs. Pesky David Eckstein will be the table-setter, while Lyle Overbay and his gap power will man the two-hole. Even the bottom of the Jays’ lineup does have some punch with the Matt Stairs/Reed Johnson platoon and Aaron Hill. Hill, who hit .291 while hitting 17 HR’s and knocking in 78 runs, will add quality production from the bottom of the lineup at the 2B position.
In terms of pitching, the Blue Jays have one heck of a staff, but most of the group is inexperienced. Established ace Roy Halladay is the experienced anchor of the staff. He has pitched 200+ innings and won 16 games each of the past two seasons. Talented fireballer A.J. Burnett will try to make it through a full season, and live up to his large contract. Burnett posted a 9.6 K/9 ratio and won 10 games.
The final three spots are made up of talented youngsters. Dustin McGowan (25 years old) has ace potential, and showed flashes last year by winning 12 games and posting an ERA just above 4. Shawn Marcum (26) logged 159 innings last year, while putting up 12 wins, an ERA at 4.13, and WHIP at 1.25. Marcum and McGowan had similar, solid first seasons as full-time starters. Hot and cold starter Jesse Litch (22) will battle with oft-injured Gustavo Chacin (27) for the fifth spot.
The group will look to get the ball to a solid middle relief corps of Casey Janssen, Scott Downs, and Jason Frasor. The club also added veteran Armando Benitez on Tuesday to bolster an already strong middle relief. The ball then gets turned over to Jeremy Accardo (30 Saves in 2007), as he closes until B.J. Ryan comes back from elbow surgery.
Overall, players have to perform like their reputations if the Blue Jays look to contend in the AL East. Wells, Rolen, and the Big Hurt have to provide some punch in the middle of the order, and the pitching rotation needs to stay healthy (yes that means you, Mr. Burnett). If (and that’s a big IF) this comes together, and the Accardo/Ryan combo can shut the door at the end, the Blue Jays could be a surprise contender. However, with so many pieces having to precisely fall into place for the Blue Jays just to contend with Boston and New York, we doubt they will be in serious contention this season.
Fantasy Impact:
Obviously, the Blue Jays have many risks. Where do you take Rolen? Will Vernon bounce back? Is Frank Thomas done? Will Burnett log a healthy season and post 220+ K’s?
The two safest fantasy plays on the roster look like Halladay and Rios. Even though Halladay’s ERA spiked from 3.19 to 3.71 last season, expect his ERA to be around the 3.50 range and whip to be around 1.17.
Rios is beginning to blossum into a fantasy gem and could be an early pick (5-8). He possesses 5-category numbers and could be poised for a 100 R, .300 AVG, 30 HR, 100 RBI, and 20 SB, which would be tremendous from the outfield position.
Two guys we especially like are the M&M starters: McGowan and Marcum. Both posted WHIPs in the 1.20-1.25 range and ERAs around or just above 4. More importantly, McGowan fanned 7.6 batters per nine innings while Marcum punched out 6.9. These young guns could be a nice bargain in the middle rounds.
Rolen, Thomas, Burnett, and Ryan will all be gambles. Know what you are getting if you draft one of these players and be prepared with a backup when there is a DL stint. Vernon Wells had a horrendous 2007, posting batting average of .245 and OPS of .709, but Wells is likely to regain some of that 2006 form, when he posted 91 R, 32 HR, 106 RBI, 17 SB and an OPS of .899. The best part about his shoddy season last year is that he could be a bargain in the middle rounds this year.
As far as the closer position, Accardo (4W, 30 S, 2.14 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.6 K/9) will be in place until Ryan is fully healthy. They are saying mid-March with Ryan, which may be a bit premature, but keep him on your “watch list.”
2008 projection: (86-76), 3rd place
Team MVP: A.J. Burnett
Also, check out our AL East preview with links to our team outlooks for each of Toronto’s division foes.
Derek Rang
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