2008 Texas Rangers Outlook
2007: (75-87), 3rd place
Manager: Ron Washington (2nd season)
Key Additions -
OF Josh Hamilton
OF Milton Bradley
P Jason Jennings
P Kazuo Fukumori
1B Ben Broussard
OF Kevin Mench
Key Losses -
P Edinson Volquez (to CIN)
1B/OF Brad Wilkerson (to SEA)
P Willie Eyre (injury)
Projected Startling Lineup -
C - Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B - Ben Broussard
2B - Ian Kinsler
SS - Michael Young
3B - Hank Blalock
LF - Marlon Byrd
CF - Josh Hamilton
RF - Milton Bradley
DH - Frank Catalanotta
Projected Rotation -
1 - Kevin Millwood (R)
2 - Vicente Padilla (R)
3 - Jason Jennings (R)
4 - Brandon McCarthy (R)
5 - Kason Gabbard (L)
CL: C.J. Wilson (L)
SU: Joaquin Benoit (R), Kazuo Fukumori (R)
2008 Outlook:
What’s scarier than knowing Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, and Jason Jennings are the heart of your starting rotation?
Realizing that…(a) their ERAs (5.16, 5.76, 6.45) were the worst of each of their careers, (b) their WHIPs (1.62, 1.63, 1.55) were atrocious, (c) the trio combined for an 18-33 overall record, (d) each threw for less than 180 innings last season after 200+ innings in 2006, and (e - the one that makes the stomach churn) they have a combined salary of $24.3 million.
Texas is perpetually looking for pitching, and this year is no different after their starters posted an AL worst 5.50 ERA last season. Nolan Ryan isn’t walking through the door…well, maybe he is (as the new team president), but he’s not going to be toeing the rubber. Of course, since Ryan’s retirement, there has only been one pitcher that seems to have had any sustained success pitching in Texas, and that’s the ageless wonder Kenny Rogers in his multiple stints with the Rangers.
Behind the three-headed monster, Brandon McCarthy will find a spot — if he can ever stay healthy. The once untradable White Sox prospect is again injured as he will be out until the middle of April or later with a forearm strain. Kason Gabbard and Luis Mendoza will likely fill out the rotation with Mendoza probably heading to the bullpen if McCarthy can ever get healthy.
Last year’s bullpen was one of the best in the league. They had a top 5 ERA, but unfortunately, gone are Akinori Otsuka and Eric Gagne, the closers from the past two seasons who solidified the bullpen last year. C.J. Wilson took over the closer job after Gagne was traded and was successful converting 12 of 14 chances, but we are a bit skeptical of someone who is supposedly working on the gyroball.
If he falters, Joaquin Benoit could take over. Benoit has been solid for the past three seasons since moving into the pen from the rotation. He is also coming off his most productive season (82 IP, 7-4, 2.85 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6 saves in 70 appearances). The Rangers also bring in former closers Eddie ‘Everyday’ Guardado and Kazuo Fukumori, who had 10 or more saves the past 4 seasons in Japan.
The Rangers’ offensive core is young with the guy whose name is Young (shortstop Michael) ironically being one of the oldest. He is over the hill on this club at the age of 31. The rest of what the Rangers appear to be building around (Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Ian Kinsler, Hank Blalock, and off-season acquisitions Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley) have an average age of only 25.8.
Saltalamacchia, who was the most prized piece of the trade with Atlanta for Mark Texiera, and Hamilton will both get the opportunity at their first full season of starting every day. And if the Rangers are to have a chance to compete in the AL West this season, the duo is going to have to be able to replace everything the Rangers lost when Texiera was shipped off…and then some.
Some would say that is near impossible for two unproven players. Texiera has hit for over 30 HR, 100 RBI, and nearly a .300 average the past four seasons, but Hamilton is the REAL DEAL. People in Princeton, West Virginia, where Tampa Bay’s lowest minor league team the Princeton (no longer Devil) Rays play, still talk about Hamilton to this day and reminisce about everything from his arm to the sound of the bat when he hit a ball during batting practice, and it’s been 8 years since he started his professional career there.
If Hamilton is able to stay healthy, he could hit 35 or 40 homers this season. Last season, if he would have played all 162 games, his numbers projected to be 34 HR and 85 RBI after he had 19 and 47 in less than 300 at bats. This spring, he is already swinging it. As of Sunday, he was in the top 5 in the major leagues in both batting average (.468) and RBI (14).
Ian Kinsler is also off to hot start in the spring. As of Sunday, he was hitting .460 and both he and Kevin Mench had scored 14 runs, one behind spring leader Chris Burke of the Diamondbacks. Young is an underrated hitter. He has hit at least .300 for the past 5 seasons, and he has drive home more than 90 RBI for the past 4 seasons. However, his home run totals have dropped from 20-25 (’04 & ‘05) to single digits last season (9).
A question mark going into the season will be what the Rangers decide to do with Saltalamacchia as far as whether they want to move him to first base permanently, platoon him, or keep him solely as a catcher. Behind Salty are Gerald Laird and highly regarded prospect Taylor Teagarden (still in the minors) and Ben Broussard is nothing more than a stop-gap at first base, so it should be something interesting to watch develop.
Fantasy Impact:
When it comes to having a fantasy impact, there are six Rangers who are on the radar before the season begins: Kinsler, Hamilton, Young, Salty, Blalock, and the only pitcher is Wilson.
Kinsler is going to go pretty consistently in the beginning of the 5-8 round range. He is the 7th or 8th best 2B, but if he can raise his batting average some, he could be a premier two-bagger because he has both power and speed. If you don’t have a second baseman, don’t pass on Kinsler because the drop off in the quality of 2B after Kinsler, Dan Uggla, and Rickie Weeks, who are all going in the same range, is significant.
At one point, when he was hitting 20-25 home runs, Young was a premier fantasy player, but he only hit 9 home runs last season, so his stock has fallen. Now he is going in the same range (5-8) as Kinsler but always being drafted at least a couple picks after his middle infield mate.
There appears to be some disagreement on Blalock and Hamilton as their draft stock has widely fluctuated depending on the individual draft. In our opinion, Hamilton is a definite sleeper as long as he stays healthy. It’s not often that you can get a possible 35-40 HRs with a good average in the 10-15 round range. It may be more realistic that he hits 25-30 home runs, but with the way this kid has come back, we don’t doubt anything from him.
Blalock is coming off shoulder surgery that caused him to miss most of the 2007 season. He came back late in the season and showed he was back to full strength as he hit 5 homers and drove in 17 runs in 19 games in September. He could be an excellent injury sleeper pick in the 14-18 round range.
With multiple position eligibility, Saltalamacchia’s stock rises, but he has still yet to fully prove himself. He hit 11 homers and drove in 33 runs in just over 300 at bats, and no longer is he playing behind Brian McCann and Scott Thorman in Atlanta. He now has the starting position to lose, and whenever he needs a day off from behind the dish, Salty can play either 1B or DH. While he is not in the top tier of 5 catchers that will go in the first 10 rounds, Saltalamacchia is the top catcher not in the top 5.
The only pitcher even worth a flier on for the Rangers is Wilson at closer. But he won’t be taken until the last couple of rounds of the draft as the Rangers don’t look to be seeing an abundant amount of save chances and Wilson has only proven he can close for a little over a month. Keep your eyes on the closer situation in Texas and be ready to pick up whoever is given the nod if Wilson struggles.
2008 projection: (72-90), 3rd place
Team MVP: Josh Hamilton
Also, check out our AL West preview with links to our team outlooks for each of Texas’s division foes.
Shotgun Spratling
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