2008 Minnesota Twins Outlook
2007: (79-83), 3rd place
Manager: Ron Gardenhire (7th season)
Key Additions -
OF Delmon Young
OF Carlos Gomez
P Livan Hernandez
3B Mike Lamb
OF Craig Monroe
SS Adam Everett
2B/SS Brendan Harris
Key Losses -
P Johan Santana (to NYM)
OF Torii Hunter (to ANA)
P Matt Garza (to TB)
P Carlos Silva (to SEA)
SS Jason Bartlett (to TB)
Projected Starting Lineup -
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Justin Morneau
2B - Brendan Harris
SS - Adam Everett
3B - Mike Lamb
LF - Delmon Young
CF - Carlos Gomez
RF - Michael Cuddyer
DH - Jason Kubel, Craig Monroe
Projected Rotation -
1 - Livan Hernandez (R)
2 - Boof Bonser (R)
3 - Kevin Slowey (R)
4 - Nick Blackburn (R)
5 - Scott Baker (R)
CL - Joe Nathan (R)
SU - Pat Neshak (R), Juan Rincon (R)
2008 Outlook:
It’s usually not a good sign for the upcoming season, when all off-season talks are about who the team is losing (i.e.: San Francisco and Barry Bonds; Florida and Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis; Oakland and Dan Haren; or even the Washington Nationals and Alfonso Soriano last year). It is especially not a good sign when one of the players the team loses is a top player in the league or the heart of the clubhouse.
For the 2008 version of the Minnesota Twins, the club is losing both the most dominant starting pitcher in the game, Johan Santana, and Torii Hunter, who has been the heart and soul of the Twinkies’ squads for the past half decade. The Twins also lost one of their top young pitchers when they traded away Matt Garza.
However, in the trades for Santana and Garza, Minnesota did get Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez, two fast-maturing youngsters who will likely roam the outfield for years to come. Gomez can cover a lot of ground in centerfield thanks to absolutely blazing speed. He is widely considered one of, if not the, fastest player in baseball. Former teammate Jose Reyes even stated the rookie is faster than himself. Gomez will eventually average 60-90 stolen bases from the Twins’ leadoff spot.
Young, the #1 overall prospect according to Baseball America prior to last season, had an unheralded rookie season in Tampa Bay. He posted good numbers (.288, 13 HR, 93 RBI, 10 SB) that will only get better as he gains more and more experience (possible .300/30 HR/130 RBI/15 SB) but was seldom recognized because rookies like Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki were putting up numbers for teams in playoff contention.
Unfortunately for Young, he is likely to go unrecognized again as the Twins won’t be in the pennant race this season. Minnesota just doesn’t have enough starting pitching to compete with the Indians, Tigers, and possibly even the White Sox in the growingly competitive AL Central. The rotation of Livan Hernandez, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, and Francisco Liriano (when he is completely healthy and recalled to the big leagues) isn’t going to be keeping Miguel Cabrera up late at night worrying much more than if he was facing the no-name rotation of his former team, the Florida Marlins.
Hernandez was once worthy of being the ace of a pitching staff when he was with San Francisco and Montreal in his prime, but that is no longer the case. His career could be on the decline, but at the least, Hernandez shouldn’t be the ace of the staff. Don’t get us wrong. We love Hernandez. After all, he is one of the quinessential examples of a Workhorse. His rookie season was the last time Hernandez didn’t accumulate 200+ innings, minus 1999. (In 1999, he was one out away from 200 innings.) He could still have some good years left in his tank, but as of right now, the durable righty would be better suited at the back end of a rotation, much like he was last season for the division winning Arizona Diamondbacks.
Instead, he heads an otherwise young and unproven rotation. Bonser and Baker each have one full season under their belts while Slowey and Blackburn made their major league debuts last season. Of the four, only Baker has posted an ERA below 4.20 in any season (and that was in only 9 starts three years ago).
Liriano, who burst onto the seen in 2006 with a 12-3 record and a 2.16 ERA before hurting his left elbow and having to undergo ‘Tommy John’ surgery forcing him to miss all of last season, was sent to the minors to begin the season as to not rush him back. He made a start for the Twins’ Class A minor league affiliate earlier this week and will make a second minor league start in AAA before the Twins make a decision on whether or not he is ready to return to the majors.
With Liriano and the four other young starters, the Twins look to have a formidable starting rotation for several years, but the success that group will have will come thanks to some growing pains they will endure this season. They are just too young and inexperienced to compete with the slugging lineups they will face day in and day out in the American League.
The Twins’ bullpen is likely to be worked pretty hard, especially if the team enforces strict pitch count limits for the young arms (Liriano will definitely be on a pitch count limit). That workload will fall on closer Joe Nathan, Pat Neshak, Juan Rincon, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Brian Bass, and Dennys Reyes. Nathan just signed a contract extension that will help quell the trade rumors, but also made many question why they didn’t throw that money at Santana. Neshak is one of the best set-up relievers in the game. Rincon, Guerrier, Crain, and Reyes have all have solid sub-3 ERA seasons in the past.
If the bullpen is able to shorten the game, the team should be able to complete some come-from-behind victories because they will score some runs. From 1-6, the Minnesota lineup is explosive. Gomez has already shown that he will be swiping bases when he gets on with 4 steals in the first 5 games. Behind Gomez, the heart of the lineup (Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Justin Morneau) moves up one spot.
While the move allows each of the trio to get more at bats, after Young and the designated hitter (Jason Kubel/Craig Monroe) slot, there is a dead spot in the order with three light-hitting infielders. The combination of Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, and Brendan Harris has 18 years of combined major league experience and only two .300+ seasons (both by Lamb in sub-400 at bat seasons).
Fantasy Impact:
Gomez is currently on pace for 108 stolen bases. While he won’t steal 100 or even 80 bases (because he won’t hit .375 for a complete season), he could plausibly steal 50-60. If he can hit around .300, he is excellent fantasy option in the mold of Chone Figgins, Juan Pierre, or Ichiro Suzuki.
Mauer is a top five catcher right behind Russell Martin and Victor Martinez. He is only 24 years old, and when he is healthy, he has both a little bit of power and a little bit of speed while all the time hitting for good average (including the 2006 AL batting title). Mauer is easily capable of 15-20 home runs and 10 stolen bases, but as he gets older and enters into his prime in a few seasons expect his power numbers to increase while his stolen bases decline to around 5 a year.
The other slugging “M” in the lineup, Morneau, has quietly established himself as a top 30 slugger the past three seasons. He has hit more than 30 HR and 110 RBI each of the past two seasons, and if you believe in the career year at age 27 theory, Morneau turns 27 in May making him a candidate for a possible power enslaught.
The Twins’ three hole hitter, Cuddyer, has also established himself in the recent years. He is a solid #3 or #4 outfielder as he has averaged .280/95/20/95 since becoming a full-time starter two seasons ago. Batting between Mauer and Morneau, he should have ample RBI opportunities and good pitches to hit.
It will be up to Young to drive in Cuddyer and assure that Morneau isn’t pitched around on a consistent basis. He is in a better lineup than he was with the (no longer Devil) Rays last season, and this could be the season that he truly bursts onto the scene. He will eventually become an All-Star caliber player, but it probably won’t be until he is moved up the order and has someone to protect him the way he’ll be doing for Morneau this season. Nonetheless, expect him to add to the stats he produced last season making him a late #2 or an early #3 outfielder, especially if you are in a keeper league.
As far as fantasy pitching goes, Nathan is at the top-tier of closers, but he will lose some saves this season with the Twins’ lack of starting pitching. Neshak could be an excellent late round flier as he strikes out more than a batter per inning and consistently maintains a low ERA and WHIP. Also, if Nathan were to get injured or traded, Neshak will take over any save opportunities.
Liriano is being drafted in the middle rounds, but with his injury history, he is a major risk. He should be in the majors before May, and if he throws like he did in 2006, he is one of the top pitchers in the game, but only time will tell how he will come back. As of now, he is still reluctant to fully let go of his pitches, in particular his devastating slider. If he gets over the inevitable nerves of throwing full speed and stays healthy, he should produce well this season. We think he is a risk worth taking, but be sure you have a backup plan readily available if he does make a return to the DL.
Besides Liriano, keep an eye on the other starters. None are worth much more than a late round flier, but each has the potential to give you quality fantasy starts. Even Hernandez is already off to a 2-0 start in which he has yet to walk a batter. You should already have Nick Blackburn on your watch list after he dazzled in his first start of the season.
2008 projection: (77-87), 4th place
Team MVP: Pat Neshak
Shotgun Spratling
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