2008 Los Angeles Dodgers Outlook
2007: (82-90), 4th place
Manager: Joe Torre (1st Season)
Key Arrivals -
M - Joe Torre
OF - Andruw Jones
P - Hiroki Kuroda
Key Departures -
P - Randy Wolf
P - Mark Hendrickson
P - David Wells
OF - Luis Gonzalez
C - Mike Lieberthal
Projected Starting Lineup -
C - Russell Martin
1B - James Loney
2B - Jeff Kent
SS - Rafael Furcal
3B - Nomar Garciaparra, Andy LaRoche
LF - Juan Pierre
CF - Andruw Jones
RF - Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier
Projected Starting Rotation -
1 - Brad Penny (R)
2 - Derek Lowe (R)
3 - Chad Billingsley (R)
4 - Hiroki Kuroda (L)
5 - Esteban Loaiza (R)
CL: Takashi Saito (R)
SU: Jonathan Broxton (R)
2008 Outlook:
The last time the Dodgers went this long without a World Series appearance, they had to change their name. While the former Brooklyn Robins, who officially became the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1932 in the midst of a 20 year streak of not making a World Series, haven’t made an appearance in the Fall Classic since 1988, they appear to possibly be on the cusp.
Last season, the Dodgers finished 4th in the division, but they were only 8 games back and the only 4th place ballclub to finish with a record above .500. The Dodgers brought in championship-caliber manager Joe Torre and have the talent to make a postseason run. However, the question that remains to be seen if Torre will let his young talent takeover for higher-priced veterans.
Juan Pierre appears to be slated for left field duty, but the leadoff hitter is taking away at bats from the young pair of sluggers Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Kemp will likely start in right but as long as Pierre is in left there will be some sort of rotation taking place to make sure Ethier gets plate appearances. This all stems from the Dodgers off-season signing of consummate Gold Glove centerfielder Andruw Jones.
After a down year last season (.222, 26 HR, 94 RBI), Jones should be looking to regain his form, but he arrived at camp 10 pounds heavier than the 225 pound playing weight from last season. He claims he felt too light last year, but only his performance will truly tell. He is still one of the best defenders in the game. However, all the weight he has added over the years may have slowed him down a step.
Torre also must decide what to do when young prospect Andy LaRoche (24) returns from thumb surgery in May. If Nomar Garciaparra, who is already inept defensively at 3B, is struggling offensively, like he did last season, will Torre make the switch? Of course, Garciaparra will not start the season at 3B either since he is recovering from a fractured right wrist. Starting the year at third will be 23-year-old Tony Abreu.
Joining Garciaparra in the training room is another aging veteran, Jeff Kent. Kent is trying to return from a strained hamstring that occurred on March 5th. If not back by Opening Day, he should be available within the next week as long as he doesn’t re-injure himself.
Shortstop Rafael Furcal, who has had his stints on the DL in the past, is oddly the only veteran position player that will enter the regular season healthy and without questions surrounding him. Young studs James Loney and Russell Martin fill out the rest of the Dodgers lineup that should be tough top to bottom once everyone is healthy.
In a little over half the season, Loney put up some impressive numbers last year: .331, 15 HR, 67 RBI. However, the power numbers were surprising to some, and seeing as he hasn’t hit a homer in 68 bats during the spring, they may have been a mirage.
Russell Martin, one of the brightest up-and-coming stars at the C position, will be working with what should be a strong pitching staff. Brad Penny and Derek Lowe anchor the front of the rotation, and with ample run support should both win 14-18 games.
Behind them are Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda. Billingsley had struggled with high pitch counts in the past, but it appears he is coming into his own. He finished last season with a 12-5 record and a 3.31 ERA. Kuroda is said to have a five pitch arsenal and tremendous competitive nature. The Dodgers hope he is more Daisuke Matsuzaka and less Kei Igawa.
Filling in the fifth spot in the rotation will be Esteban Loaiza to begin the season. Jason Schmidt is expected back somewhere in mid-May, but there is no guarantee, he will be given a spot in the rotation. Another fellow waiting in the wings is Clayton Kershaw. The 20-year-old left-hander has been rated as one of the top 10 prospects in baseball and could see a midseason call up.
In the bullpen, Torre will have a dominant duo at the backend with Takashi Saito and Jonathan Broxton. Saito was one of 13 pitchers with a WHIP below 1.00 (min. 50 IP), and Seattle closer J.J. Putz (0.70) was the only pitcher better than Saito’s 0.72. There have been concerns about the 38-year-old Saito’s durability because of his age and a calf injury he’s had during the spring. If Saito fails or makes a visit to the DL, the Dodgers have the utmost faith in Broxton.
The big, burly right-hander, much like Youngberry who strikes out Roy Hobbs at the end of Bernard Malamud’s The Natural
Fantasy Impact:
Since we were just discussing Broxton, we’ll start with him and Saito. Saito has shown he is a legit closer. He has converted 63 of 69 save opps, has an ERA of 1.77, and has had a WHIP under 1.00 since coming to the major leagues two seasons ago. The Dodgers say he’ll be ready when the team opens the season, so don’t be afraid to draft him. However, keep in the back of your mind, that he is aging and could be an injury risk.
With that thought, if possible, pick up Broxton on a flier in the 18th round or later. If Saito is completely healthy all year, you still are going to get nearly 100 strikeouts (something some starters available at this point will barely do), an ERA under 3, and a WHIP somewhere around 1.15-1.25. Plus, he will pick up around 5 save opps, and there still is the possibility that he takes over the closer role if Saito is injured or struggles.
Penny is going to put up solid numbers as long as he stays healthy and is going in the 10th round, give or take a round. We expect Billingsley to have a great year with numbers comparable to Penny’s but with more strikeouts and probably a little bit higher ERA. Don’t be afraid to take him around the same time as Penny goes off the board.
The sinkerballer of the rotation, Lowe finished last season with a 12-14, but still had a strong WHIP and a decent ERA of 3.88. His numbers have been fairly consistent during his three years in LA, so we don’t foresee there being any drastic change for the good or the bad.
Kuroda is a bit of wildcard. He had a 40-26 record with a 2.86 ERA the last two seasons despite pitching in a hitter friendly park, but he is 33, and his strikeout rate has declined the past three seasons. Buyer beware. He could be a major league bust, but then again he isn’t going to be drafted until late, so depending on who else is available, he could be worthy of taking a chance on.
With so much young talent, the Dodgers have several candidates for keeper leagues, but who is going to help your fantasy team this season?
Furcal appears to be completely healed from an ankle injury that slowed him on the base paths and kept him from turning on pitches. Expect him to rebound with a 12-15 HR, 35-40 SB season much as he was accustomed to before last season. Kemp is another fantasy stud…if he can get full playing time. Only time and Torre will tell on this one, though.
When it comes to catchers, Martin is at the top of the class along with Victor Martinez. He almost had a 20/20 season last year, something nearly unheard of from his position. He should produce similar numbers this season, which is why he is being drafted in the 3rd-4th round, the second C behind Martinez. In keeper leagues, beware though, Jason Kendall once stole bases but the ultimate wear and tear on the legs from catching limits that once a catcher turns 27-28.
Loney isn’t going to have the same pop. Don’t overdraft. Jones appears to be on the decline with his paltry batting average. Be cautious. Pierre shouldn’t be playing everyday and he’s only good for steals. Pass on him. Kent, if healthy, can still produce 20 HR from the 2B position so keep your eye out for him to be available in the mid to late rounds.
2008 projection: (90-72)
Team MVP: Russell Martin
Also, check out our NL West preview with links to our team outlooks for each of Los Angeles’s division foes.
Shotgun Spratling
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