The Blue Workhorse

2007: (94-68), 1st Place

Manager: Mike Scioscia (9th Season)

Key Additions -
CF - Torii Hunter
P - Jon Garland

Key Losses -
SS - Orlando Cabrera
P - Bartolo Colon

Projected Starting Lineup -
C - Mike Napoli
1B - Casey Kotchman
2B - Howie Kendrick
SS - Erick Aybar
3B - Chone Figgins
LF - Gary Matthews Jr.
CF - Torii Hunter
RF - Vladimir Guerrero
DH - Garret Anderson

Projected Rotation -
1 - John Lackey (R)
2 - Kelvim Escobar (R)
3 - Jered Weaver (R)
4 - Jon Garland (R)
5 - Ervin Santana(R)/Joe Saunders (L)
**Dustin Moseley (R)/Nick Adenhart (R) will fill the #5 spot until Lackey & Escobar return from the DL at the end of April or in May

CL: Francisco Rodriguez (R)
SU: Scot Shields (R)

2008 Outlook:
Before about two weeks ago, the Angels were easily the favorite to defend their AL West division title. But then ace John Lackey was injured and then Kelvim Escobar decided to join him. Now, both the Angels’ #1 and #2 starters will begin the season on the DL, and that once solid favorite now appears to be vulnerable, especially with the Seattle Mariners making key offseason acquisitions.

What was a strength of the team will now begin the season as a weakness. As the old saying goes, you can’t win the pennant in April, but you can lose it. Jered Weaver will have to be the ace he has the potential to be until Lackey returns. If the Angels don’t get quality starts out of Weaver and new acquisition Jon Garland to begin the season, they could be facing an uphill battle all season of trying to catch the Mariners.

For the past few years, the Angels would have the ability to have the starters just do enough to get the ball to the bullpen and the pen could do the rest, but there are concerns about the Angels’ bullpen going into the beginning of this season. While Francisco Rodriguez may be the best he’s ever been this season with free agency due after the season, main set-up man Scot Shields’s production slipped a little bit in the second half of 2007, and he has been injured this spring. Long reliever Chris Bootcheck has also been injured this spring making him unlikely to be ready on Opening Day, and if Dustin Moseley moves into the rotation, someone will have to step into his spot in the bullpen.

The offense will be strong 1-7 with the winner of the Mike Napoli/Jeff Mathis and Erick Aybar/Maicer Izturis Spring Training position battles/platoons filling out the bottom of the lineup.

Chone Figgins is the tablesetter, and if he can continue to hit like he did last year when he was absolutely on fire for nearly 4 months (after starting the season onf the DL and struggling when he returned in May, he hit .388 from June to September), the heart of the Angels’ lineup should be licking their chops. His stolen base ability (62, 52, 41 the past 3 seasons) will allow Howie Kendrick or Gary Matthews Jr. (whichever is in the #2 hole) to see a lot of fastballs and Vlad the Impaler, Garret Anderson, and Torii Hunter to have plenty of RBI opportunities.

Also, look for Kendrick and Casey Kotchman to possibly have breakout seasons. Both are young players (24; 25) who have major league experience, and both had moderately successful seasons last year as part-time role players. The Angels will need these two youngsters to live up to their potential, especially at the beginning of the season when the offense will be needed to carry the team. The size of the deficit the Angels will have to make up from the Mariners will depend exponentially on how well the offense performs until Lackey and Escobar return.

Fantasy Impact:
Before his injury, Lackey was one of the top 5 or 6 pitchers, who was a workhorse guaranteed to give you 200+ innings. But now he is out until May and then he has to get ready to face major league batters, like he would have been doing in Spring Training. This makes when to pick Lackey an enigma. If you pick up a couple of other good pitchers and can stand to put Lackey on your DL for a month, then pick him up in the 11-15 round range. He may already be gone by this time, but a strained triceps muscle is not a very common injury, so we don’t want to overdraft on something we’re not sure how Lackey will return from.

Another top 10 pitcher is Rodriguez. K-Rod will put up another 40+ saves with a sub 3 ERA and 90+ K this year. That’s what he has done the last three seasons at least. He is also entering a contract year, so expect big things. He is one of the premier closers and will only be behind Papelbon and maybe Putz in a fantasy draft.

Regardless of how dominant of a closer K-Rod is, there will be three other Angels selected before him: Guerrero, Figgins, and Hunter. Vlad the Impaler is an absolute beast. However, injuries slowed his production last season. He hit less than 30 home runs when getting at least 500 at bats for the first time in his career. He also only stole 2 bases after once stealing 40 and having stolen 13 or more the past 3 seasons. But he is healthy now, and that should be exciting for fantasy owners — if he stays that way.

We’ve already discussed what Figgins will do for the Angels. For fantasy owners, he will steal, at an absolute minimum, 30 bags, will score 90-100 runs, and he is capable of hitting .320-.330 easily. He won’t hit more than a handful of dingers or drive in more than 50 or 60 runs, but he is easily worthy of a selection 5 picks to either side of the #50 pick in your draft.

Hunter is coming off a strong season in a contract year, so depending on what type of personality he has, he could either Adrian Beltre and have one great year followed by constant mediocrity or continue what he started last season. Hunter has been consistent throughout his career, so expect him to fall back into something like a .275/85/26/88/16 line rather than last seasons numbers: .287/94/28/107/18.

We expect Kendrick to breakout somewhat, so he could be a great pick in the 8-10 round range. He has potential to contribute in all five basic fantasy statistical categories. Kotchman could also break out, but at a less desirable position than Kendrick, Kotchman will go much later in the draft (if at all). If he goes undrafted, he’s a guy to keep on your watch list as you’ll want to pick him up if he starts off on a tear.

Matthews Jr. is a late round pick. Napoli is a late round catcher that could possibly drop 20 bombs if he is given the starting catching job full-time rather than as a platoon. Garland will pick up wins, but he will have a 4.00-4.50 ERA and will not contribute much to the K category. Drafting Garret Anderson would be a stretch unless you are in an AL-only or a deeper mixed league.

Escobar’s draft status is another question mark due to his injury. He was listed as likely to return at the end of April but that has since been pushed back to mid-May. He is coming off an 18 win season, and he actually could turn into a quality sleeper if everyone in your league forgets about him. Don’t go overdrafting him, but once the starting pitching starts to thin out, he could be an excellent option.

Weaver is going to be expected to produce as an ace while he fills the role until Lackey and Escobar return, and we expect nothing less from him this season. If he gets less than 16 wins and a 3.60 ERA, we are goign to be disappointed because he has the talent, has shown he is capable, and is now fully healthy (something that wasn’t the case last year).

2008 projection: (92-70), 1st place
Team MVP: Jered Weaver

Also, check out our AL West preview with links to our team outlooks for each of LA of Anaheim’s division foes.

Shotgun Spratling

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