2008 Boston Red Sox Outlook
2007: (96-66), 1st place
Manager: Terry Francona (5th Season)
Key Additions -
1B - Sean Casey
P - Bartolo Colon
P - David Aardsma
P - Dan Kolb
P - Dan Miceli
Key Losses -
P - Matt Clement (to STL)
IF/OF - Eric Hinske (to TB)
P - Eric Gagne (to MIL)
Projected Starting Lineup -
C - Jason Varitek
1B - Kevin Youkilis
2B - Dustin Pedroia
SS - Julio Lugo
3B - Mike Lowell
LF - Manny Ramirez
CF - Jacoby Ellsbury
RF - J.D. Drew
DH - David Ortiz
Projected Rotation -
1 - Josh Beckett (R)
2 - Daisuke Matsuzaka (R)
3 - Tim Wakefield (R)
4 - Jon Lester (L)
5 - Clay Buchholz (R)
CL: Jonathan Papelbon (R)
SU: Hideki Okajima (L)
2008 Outlook:
Coming off their second World Series Title in four seasons, the Boston Red Sox are among the favorites to win in 2008. With basically the entire roster returning, this club features few, if any, weaknesses. Francona has a roster full of proven, experienced players, with an intricate mix of young talent that will provide him more depth and options.
The starting rotation will be anchored by possibly the league’s best big game pitcher in Josh Beckett. He is coming off the best season of his career, compiling a 20-7 record with a 3.27 ERA. In 200 innings, Beckett logged 194 strikeouts and allowed only 189 hits. With Curt Schilling expected to miss a substantial portion of the regular season, Matsuzaka will assume the number two spot in the rotation. “Dice-K” made 32 starts and threw over 200 innings in his first MLB season, earning a 15-12 record with a 4.40 ERA. Expect Matsuzaka to continue to improve as he becomes more comfortable pitching in the Major Leagues, and more confident in his ability to get big league hitters out. Wakefield and Lester will provide the Red Sox with consistency in the middle of the rotation.
The wild card in the rotation will be the rookie Buchholz. He showed flashes of greatness in his short stint with Boston in 2007, including a no-hitter against Baltimore, which was the first by a rookie in the history of the storied Red Sox franchise. While he has the arm to be very successful at the big league level, do not expect him to dominate in 2008. He will nicely fill the role as the fifth starter, but throwing every fifth day in the American League is a big adjustment, and the youngster is likely to have his share of struggles.
Watch for the aging Bartolo Colon to see some innings for the Red Sox throughout the season, as the veteran was recently signed to a minor league contract. With Schilling injured and the youth in the rotation, Colon provides a veteran insurance policy that is still capable of getting hitters out.
The Red Sox will have plenty of depth in its bullpen, with veterans Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez, as well as Manny Delcarmen, left-handed specialist Javier Lopez, and newcomer David Aardsma.
Anchoring the pen will be stud closer Jonathan Papelbon. After 37 saves in 2007, he has emerged as one of the game’s top closers. Getting the ball to Papelbon will be Okajima. The lefty led the club last year with 69 innings out of the bullpen with a 2.22 ERA.
There will be no struggle when it comes to scoring runs in 2008. The Bo’Sox return all of the everyday starting 9 from last year’s team. The most familiar and fun-loving faces of Ramirez and Ortiz sit in the middle of the lineup. Ramirez will look to rebound after an uncharacteristic 2007, in which he hit only 20 home runs and drove in 88 RBI, which are both way down from his normal production.
Ortiz, on the other hand, is coming off a MVP caliber season (.332, 35 home runs, 111 RBI). The two veteran sluggers will be surrounded by weapons throughout the lineup. Pedroia will bring speed and excitement to the top of the order as he tries to avoid any sophomore slump. The veterans (Youkilis, Lowell, Drew, and Varitek) will try to match the production of last season, and will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.
Rookie Jacoby Ellsbury will likely move into the starting role in center field. After emerging late last season, he showed he is ready to play every day. Ellsbury’s emergence forces Coco Crisp to the bench, and makes him a potential trade option.
The addition of Sean Casey will allow Francona more flexibility in the lineup, and with flexibility comes some much appreciated days of rest for some aging veterans. Casey will see a lot of action at first base against right-handed pitching, giving Youkilis some days off. Against righties, Francona also has the option of giving Lowell some rest and putting Youkilis at third base.
Fantasy Impact:
Ortiz is a beast! He will continue to put up the ridiculous numbers we have become accustomed to. With plenty of runners on base to drive in, expect another 35-40 home run season with 120 RBI from the veteran DH. His cohort, Ramirez, will rebound after a down year in 2007. We’re not saying he’ll be the Manny of the early part of this decade, but he is still a great hitter and could be a steal if he slips in the draft.
If Ellsbury is the everyday centerfielder like we believe, you are going to get good stolen base production, but don’t overvalue this rookie, especially since he is expected to hit at the bottom of the Boston order.
Beckett will continue to be one of the games most dominant starters. This workhorse will give you the production you need out of a top of the rotation fantasy starter. Feel confident taking him early in the draft. He’s going to win 18-22 games with the run production he will receive. Plus, he’ll fill up the stat line with close to 200 strikeouts and low WHIP and ERA.
While he may improve upon his 2007 production, Matsuzaka isn’t quite in the upper tier of fantasy starters but still remains a solid fantasy option. Papelbon should get many save opportunities for Boston, and will continue his dominance.
Buchholz may be a good option in the middle rounds of the draft, but be careful not to over value him. He has yet to prove he can be an everyday starter for an entire season, so therefore, there is no guarantee he will stay in the rotation for the entire season, especially with Bartolo Colon waiting in the wings.
2008 projection: (99-63), 1st place
Team MVP: Josh Beckett
Also, check out our AL East preview with links to our team outlooks for each of Boston’s division foes.
Adam Rosen
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