2008 St. Louis Cardinals Outlook
2007: (78-84), 3rd place
Manager: Tony LaRussa (12th Season)
Key Additions -
3B - Troy Glaus
P - Matt Clement
SS - Cesar Izturis
OF - Juan Gonzalez
C - Jason LaRue
Key Losses -
3B Scott Rolen (to TOR)
OF Jim Edmonds (to SD)
P Troy Percival (to TB)
OF Juan Encarnacion (eye injury)
SS David Eckstein (to TOR)
P Kip Wells (to COL)
OF So Taguchi (to PHI)
Projected Starting Lineup -
C - Yadier Molina
1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Adam Kennedy
SS - Cesar Izturis
3B - Troy Glaus
LF - Chris Duncan
CF - Rick Ankiel
RF - Skip Shumaker
Projected Rotation -
1 - Adam Wainwright (R)
2 - Braden Looper (R)
3 - Joel Pineiro (R)
4 - Matt Clement (R)
5 - Anthony Reyes (R)
***Chris Carpenter (R) could return after the All-Star break
***Mark Mulder (L) could be back in the middle of May
CL: Jason Isringhausen (R)
SU: Ryan Franklin (R)
2008 Outlook:
After defeating the Detroit Tigers in the 2006 World Series, the Cardinals quickly fell to mediocrity in the weak National League Central. Last year, the Cardinals lost ace Chris Carpenter on opening night, and never could recover, finishing 7 games back of the Chicago Cubs.
Things do not look brighter for St. Louis this year. Carpenter and Mulder will start the season on the DL, and the rotation looks like a makeshift of average veterans and inexperienced arms. Wainwright returns to the hill after logging 200+ innings and posting 14 wins, while posting a respectable 3.70 earned-run average. The rest of the rotation will be iffy until the return of Carpenter and Mulder, assuming the duo return at full strength.
Carpenter can be dominant when healthy and posted consecutive 15+ win seasons with a average WHIP of 1.07. St. Louis’ fans are hoping Reyes can pitch like he did in the 2006 World Series, Clement can regain the movement on his two seam fastball, which made him a coveted free-agent in 2005, and Looper and Pinero can remain consistent enough to log quality innings.
The strength of the team will be the bullpen. Tyler Johnson, Franklin, and Russ Springer are proven relievers, and Isringhausen had a tremendous year closing games, as evident by his 32 saves, 2.48 ERA, and 1.07 WHIP.
In terms of run production, St. Louis still has one of the purest hitters in the game. Even though there have been tremendous questions about Pujols’s elbow, he will play through the pain this year and put off surgery until the offseason. He has had a solid spring, and can single-handedly carry a team through the season when healthy.
The biggest question for St. Louis is who will protect Albert. Glaus is injury prone, but the natural grass in St. Louis should help his foot after spending the two seasons on Toronto’s astroturf in the Rogers Centre. Glaus’s last season in the National League, he posted 37 HR, 97 RBI, and an OPS at .885. This is the production the Cards need to stay in contention.
Inexperienced outfielders Shumaker and Ankiel will try to set the table for Pujols and Glaus, but they both are extremely inconsistent hitters. Duncan has shown tremendous power in his short career, and the Cardinals need him to get his OPS back in the .900’s to potentially create a good 3-4-5 punch.
The bottom of the order is extremely weak, with Molina, Kennedy, and Izturis. Expect little offensive production from the trio, even though Molina and Izturis are above-average fielders at their respective positions. LaRussa has even mentioned the idea of batting the pitcher 8th this year, something he has had success with in the past.
The 2008 St. Louis Cardinals will need some luck to contend in the NL Central as Chicago, Houston, Milwaukee, and even possibly Cincinnati field better clubs. However, players tend to perform better when playing in front of the tremendous fans in St. Louis. If some veterans regain past form (Clement) and Mulder and Carpenter come off the DL healthy, the Cards could possibly make a late push.
Then again, there is not a lot of offensive production in the lineup and runs will be hard to come by. This could be a frustrating year for St. Louis fans.
Fantasy Impact:
In term of a fantasy impact, the Cardinals have very few fantasy studs. Obviously, Fat Albert is a first round pick, but is falling in some drafts because of his elbow and a un-Pujols-like 2007 season, in which he still posted a .327 AVG, hit 32 HRs, drive in 103 runs, and had an OPS at .997. Pujols is a buy at this point, because the elbow is not giving him problems at the plate, but there is always that added injury risk.
Glaus could also be a potential quality middle round performer, but, again, there is the added injury risk. Besides his injury issues, he does have the power to put up 35 HR and 100 RBI.
Duncan is an intriguing option. He posted an .824 OPS last year, hit .260 and drove in 70, while playing part-time or battling injuries. He has great power, and posted an OPS of .952 during his first year in the majors, so he could be a true sleeper pick in this year’s draft.
In terms of other position players, nobody is really intriguing. Shumaker could hit for average, Ankiel does have pop, and Molina has improved his hitting, but consider these guys for waiver pick-ups during the season.
Adam Wainwright should be drafted in the middle-to-late rounds, based on his solid 2007 campaign as a full time starter. His WHIP was high at 1.40, but that is due to a lackluster K/9 rate at 6.1. He has shown better rates in the minors and while pitching relief in 200 (around 9.0).
The rest of the starters will be waiver pickups, unless you want to draft Carpenter and use a DL slot for the first half, which would probably not be a wise move. Isringhausen will be a valuable pick up in the closer position. He posted 65.1 IP, 32 Saves, and a great WHIP of 1.07.
2008 projection: (74-88)
Team MVP: Albert Pujols
Also, check out our NL Central preview with links to our team outlooks for each of St. Louis’s division foes.
Derek Rang
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