2008 Cincinnati Reds Outlook
2007: (72-90), 6th place
Manager: Dusty Baker (1st season)
Key Additions -
M Dusty Baker
P Francisco Cordero
P Edinson Volquez
P Jeremy Affeldt
P Josh Fogg
OF Corey Patterson
IF Jerry Hairston Jr.
Key Losses -
OF Josh Hamilton (to TEX)
P Eric Milton (free agency)
P Eddie Guardado (to TEX)
P Phil Dumatrait (to PIT)
Projected Startling Lineup -
C - David Ross
1B - Joey Votto
2B - Brandon Phillips
SS - Jeff Keppinger
3B - Edwin Encarnacion
LF - Adam Dunn
CF - Norris Hopper, Ryan Freel
RF - Ken Griffey Jr.
Projected Rotation -
1 - Aaron Harang (R)
2 - Bronson Arroyo (R)
3 - Matt Belisle (R)
4 - Homer Bailey (R)
5 - Jeremy Affeldt (L)
CL: Francisco Cordero (R)
SU: David Weathers (R)
2008 Outlook:
The oldest professional baseball team in the league is featuring a very young line-up—full of baby-faces (in a more metaphorical sense, not literally, like old closer Danny Graves)—and may just be a dominant force again, though probably not this year. A Baby Red Machine, perhaps.
There were two blockbuster moves over the offseason. The first was acquiring a new manager, giving a three-year contract to toothpick with a Dusty Baker attached to it. Next came the 4-year 46 million dollar signing of closer Fransisco Cordero.
The deal came with a lot of controversy, debates on whether that figure was too high, that Cordero was overrated, but it shows that the Reds are willing to pay money to win—something Cincinnati fans should, at the very least, be able to support. Cordero is the first legit closer since Graves (who, like Patriots’ coach Bill Belichick, was built like a lesbian, equipped with the butch haircut and sassy personality).
Behind Cordero, David Weathers is still in the bullpen. He didn’t do terribly last season as closer, saving 33 of 39 with a 3.59 ERA, but will now see more eighth inning action as a nice set-up man option. After Weathers, the bullpen is anchored (albeit a very light, inefficient anchor) by Mike Stanton, Bill Bray, Gary Majewski, Jared Burton, Todd Coffey, Marcus McBeth, and Jon Coutlangus.
Question marks in the bullpen can often be answered by solid starters—and playing in Great American Ball Park doesn’t help (like cramming nine men, a lot of grass, and some fair-weather fans into a bathtub)—but unfortunately, the Reds rotation is just as shaky.
Aaron Harang has been nothing short of brilliant, emerging as one of the best starting pitchers in the National League. Last year, he racked up 231.2 innings with a 3.73 ERA. He fanned 218 batters in his 16-6 performance. A 20-win season—with the help of the bullpen and a powerful line-up—is not entirely out of the question.
However, number two Bronson Arroyo was unable to repeat his 2006 season last year. Tallying a 9-15 record, the long haired, high kicking righty was still able to post a 4.23 ERA. If he can get back to form, he is a solid number two option for a team whose staff has struggled for more than a decade.
Starting pitcher Eric Milton waved bye-bye to the ‘Nati, leaving the remaining spots in the rotation wide open. Newcomers Jeremy Affeldt, Josh Fogg and Edison Volquez will compete to squeeze into the rotation, along with Matt Belisle, Homer Bailey, and Johnny Cueto.
For years, Bailey had been the talk of the town. He’s been the Reds’—if not baseball’s—best pitching prospect for years and may finally prove it this year. Last year he had nine starts, but had the inconsistency of —not surprisingly—of a rookie. He struck out 28, but also walked the same number.
Two other young prospects are Volquez and Cueto, who will probably start in AAA, but have the potential to make an impact this year. Cueto, just 22, just might have as much upside as Bailey.
The Reds line-up has the power, but not the stability.
Ken Griffey Jr., Brandon Phillips, and Adam Dunn will be the loadstone for the Reds, barring injuries (a big IF…see how big it is?). Beyond the three, a little bit of youth and a little bit of experience should keep things interesting.
With Dunn and Griffey, the only question mark is center field. Outfielder Josh Hamilton—at one time baseball’s biggest prospect in years—is no longer a Red, but he isn’t in prison, so everybody wins. Scrapper Ryan Freel will no doubt get the nod on opening day and the days after opening day, but Jay Bruce—a 21-year-old who is rated as one of the top 5 prospects in baseball—made quick work of A-ball and might replace Freel if the Reds are being the Reds around mid-season.
First baseman Joey Votto, just 24, has been turning some heads, and has been threatening to take the starting spot from Scott Hatteberg. Votto posted a .294/22/92 season in AAA Louisville and .321/4/17 in 85 at bats in Cincy in September.
Edwin Encarnacion has been the guy for two years now and has been improving every season. The 25-year-old will again man the hot corner and should build upon his .289 season that featured 12 homeruns and 76 RBIs.
It may be another “maybe next year” year for Reds’ fans, but the organization is taking steps in the right direction, and maybe next year will be a “this year” year. They are paying money, making moves, developing prospects, and could make a run at the NL Central title in the next couple years. As of now, the team needs to develop what it’s got.
Fantasy Impact:
On draft day, expect to see a lot of Cincinnati Reds being selected. The first guy to go will be Brandon Phillips. Phillips, who was once a castoff by Cleveland, broke out last season with a 30-30 season from the 2B positition. Those numbers will make him be one of the first 2B taken behind Chase Utley.
Dunn and Harang will go anywhere from the 3rd or 4th to the 8th to 10th round depending on how the draft goes. With Dunn, you know exactly what you are going to get. Over the last four years, he has been uber-consistent averaging 103 R, 41 HR, 102 RBI, and even 6 SB. Of course, Dunn has never hit above .266, so expect him to hit somewhere from .220 to .270.
For the past five seasons, Harang has lowered his ERA each season. He also has 200+ strikeouts the past two seasons, and the more strikeouts the better with the crackerjack box that is Great American Ball Park. He is at the back end of the top 10-15 fantasy starters.
Around the 15th round, there will be a small influx of Reds taken as Encarnacion, Griffey, and Arroyo will all be taken somewhere between rounds 14-18. Also, Votto could be taken in this area as well if someone takes a chance on him. If you think Votto will be able to replicate last September’s performance for the entire season, he should be taken whenever you can get him. However, we think you should wait until the late rounds to take a flier on him as he is likely to hit a big slump at some point.
Another late round flier should be Bruce. Bruce is going to put up good fantasy numbers even if he isn’t up for the entire season. Does the name Ryan Braun ring a bell? Lastly, keep an eye on Volquez if he makes the rotation and Bailey as both are highly touted prospects.
2008 projection: (82-80)
Team MVP: Aaron Harang
Also, check out our NL Central preview with links to our team outlooks for each of Cincinnati’s division foes.
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